Pielke’s Iron Law, CO poisonings, Antoine Saab, & Caracaras

Sep 03, 2021

Coal surge proves Pielke's 'Iron Law,' blackouts and poisonings in Louisiana, Antoine Saab talks Lebanon & solar on the podcast, Crested Caracaras

The devastation in Louisiana from Hurricane Ida is hard to fathom. As I write this, about 850,000 customers in the southeastern part of the state still do not have power, and news reports indicate the blackouts in the state could persist for a month or even longer. It’s too early to know how (or when) Louisiana will recover from this latest hurricane. But it is clear that although the early death toll from Ida is relatively small, the state of Louisiana, and other parts of the country that suffered damage from flooding, including New York, are facing a long recovery. Five items this week:

My Forbes piece on surging electricity and coal use
Antoine Saab on the podcast and “total collapse” in Lebanon
Another Forbes piece, this one on blackouts and CO poisonings
Media hits
Ground-dwelling falcons near Wimberley

The photo above is of a Crested Caracara. It was taken by Joseph C. Boone in Costa Rica in 2012.

Rumors about the death of coal are greatly exaggerated. More proof of that emerged a few days ago when Ember reported that coal-fired generation continues to grow in China and other countries. On Monday, I published an article about this trend in Forbes. I began the piece:

As the Covid lockdowns are easing, the global economy is recovering and that recovery is fueling blistering growth in electricity use. The latest data from Ember, the London-based “climate and energy think tank focused on accelerating the global electricity transition,” show that global electricity use soared by about 5% in the first half of 2021. That’s faster growth than was happening back in 2018 when electricity use was increasing by about 4% per year.
The numbers from Ember also show that despite lots of talk about the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coal demand for power generation continues to grow and emissions from the electric sector continue to grow: up by 5% over the first half of 2019. In addition, they show that while about half of the growth in electricity demand was met by wind and solar, overall growth in electricity use is still outstripping the growth in renewables.

I continued:

Ember’s data clearly shows that decarbonizing the global electric grid will require finding a substitute for coal. Indeed, coal use may be plummeting in the U.S. and western Europe, but over the past two years, several developing countries including Mongolia, China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and India, all boosted their use of coal. This was particularly obvious in China, where, between the first half of 2019 and the first half of 2021, electricity demand jumped by about 14%. Of that increase, coal-fired generation provided roughly twice as much new electricity as wind and solar combined. In Pakistan, electricity demand jumped by about 7%, and coal provided more than three times as much new electricity as nuclear and about three times as much as hydro. (Wind and solar did not grow at all in Pakistan over that period.)
Hate coal all you like, but its century-long persistence in power generation proves its importance. That persistence proves that climate change concerns are not as important to most consumers and policymakers as reliable electricity. In 2010, Roger Pielke Jr. dubbed this the Iron Law of Climate Policy which says “When policies on emissions reductions collide with policies focused on economic growth, economic growth will win out every time.” Pielke elaborated on that point, saying the Iron Law is a “boundary condition on policy design that is every bit as limiting as is the second law of thermodynamics, and it holds everywhere around the world, in rich and poor countries alike. It says that even if people are willing to bear some costs to reduce emissions (and experience shows that they are), they are willing to go only so far.”

I concluded:

Ember explains that in the first half of 2021, wind and solar output exceeded the output of the world’s nuclear reactors for the first time. It also noted that over the past two years, “Nuclear generation fell by 2% compared to pre-pandemic levels, as closures at older plants across the OECD exceeded the new capacity in China.” While that may cheer anti-nuclear activists at groups like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, the truth is obvious: the only way – repeat, the only way – the electric sector will achieve significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions is if we can replace lots of coal-fired generation with nuclear reactors and do so in relatively short order, meaning the next decade or so. Renewables are politically popular and they are growing, but they cannot, will not, be able to match the soaring demand for the electricity that is needed to sustain modern economies and bring developing countries out of the darkness and into modernity.
Countries like China, Vietnam, India, and others need an alternative to coal for power generation. They need new nuclear reactors that are smaller, safer, and cheaper than the existing designs. And they need it soon. I will be writing about those reactors in future columns.

Again, here's a link. Please share it.

Antoine Saab talks about Lebanon, solar, batteries, and the future of microgrids

Four years ago, while filming Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, I met Antoine Saab, the founder and CEO of E24 Solutions. When I interviewed him for the film at his office in Beirut, his business appeared to be thriving. The city was humming with tourists and he was doing a brisk business selling solar and battery installations. Since then, his company has taken some hard hits. Last year, E24’s office was destroyed by the devastating blast at the port that leveled much of the city. Add in the economic crisis and the difficulty of getting supplies, or even motor fuel, and the problems are compounded yet further.

In this episode (#69) of the Power Hungry Podcast, I talked to Saab, who is now living in Montreal, about the “total collapse” of the Lebanese economy, why E24 still uses lead-acid batteries instead of lithium-ion, Chinese-made solar panels, and why, as he said in Juice, “microgrids are the future.” It was another fun episode. Please give it a listen.

Here’s how I started the Forbes piece that I published on Wednesday:

As night follows day, public health crises follow closely on the heels of extended blackouts. Although only about four people have died due to the direct effects of Hurricane Ida, the electricity crisis that is engulfing New Orleans and much of southeastern Louisiana will soon result in a surge in the death rate and a big jump in the number of fatalities and poisonings caused by inhalation of carbon monoxide emitted by small electricity generators. Yesterday, according to a story in the New Orleans Times-Picayune, nine people in St. Tammany Parish were taken to the hospital due to carbon monoxide poisoning caused by an electric generator. More such poisonings are almost certain.
“The longer the power outage, the more certain we will have carbon monoxide poisonings,” says Dr. Neil Hampson, 66, a retired medical doctor who has been studying the problem for more than 30 years. In a phone interview on Tuesday evening, Hampson told me the “first wave” of poisonings “come in the first two to four days” after the blackout as people try to get their air conditioners and refrigerators running again. A second wave comes about a week later. Furthermore, data collected by Hampson and others show that Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians-Americans suffer a disproportionate share of those carbon monoxide poisonings and deaths. More on that in a moment.
At about 8 am this morning, about 1 million people in southeastern Louisiana were without power and multiple news outlets were reporting that due to the destruction of several high-voltage transmission lines, the blackout could last for weeks. While the duration of the blackout can’t be known at this point, history shows the close connection between blackouts and public health. Put another way, the longer the blackout, the deadlier its impact. That is particularly true for the elderly and the medically frail.

I continued:

Carbon monoxide poisonings from small generators provide a vivid example of the essentiality of electricity to our lives. Indeed, deaths from carbon monoxide poisoning happen with surprising regularity. A 2013 report estimated as many as 400 people die every year in the U.S. due to carbon monoxide poisoning and that it “is a primary cause of both morbidity and mortality following severe weather events.” It said the poisonings, “consistently occur when residents improperly use portable gasoline-powered generators and other tools following severe storms and power outages.”

I concluded the piece by writing: "There is much more to be written about Hurricane Ida. But at this moment, without the life-sustaining power of electricity, it appears that the people in southeastern Louisiana are in for a long period of hurt." Again, here's a link.

Note: Since Wednesday morning when I published my piece, at least four Louisianans have died from carbon monoxide poisoning. On Wednesday, according to WDSU.com, the Jefferson Parish Fire Department was “responding to 4-5 carbon monoxide poisoning calls hourly.”

A couple of media hits

I was a guest on two podcasts this week. Yesterday, along with my friend Isaac Orr, I was on the In The Tank Podcast, which is sponsored by the Heartland Institute. Isaac and I talked at length about EVs, transportation, and energy policy.

I was also on David Ramsden-Wood’s podcast, which is called #HotTakeofThe Day.

Both podcasts were a lot of fun. Check them out.

Four "ground-dwelling falcons" near Wimberley

Last week, Lorin and I visited a friend’s place near Wimberley. We’d been to his ranchito many times before but on this occasion, we saw four Crested Caracaras (Caracara plancus) on the ground in a large grassy pasture. I had seen Caracaras before, but this was the first time I could drive fairly close to them. In doing so, I was struck by the fact that they were all on the ground and didn't seem inclined to fly away. I’m used to seeing large birds like them – vultures, hawks, and eagles – perched on trees, or wires, or poles. Instead, they were all on the ground, which made sense as soon as I looked at iBird and saw that they are a “ground-dwelling falcon.”

Also known as Audubon’s Caracara, or the “Mexican Eagle,” they are impressive birds that look like a cross between a Turkey Vulture and a Bald Eagle. They are easily identified in flight by their long tail, which has a distinctive white stripe. My tattered copy (1960) of Roger Tory Peterson’s A Field Guide to the Birds of Texas, describes the Crested Caracara as a “large long-legged, long-necked, dark hawk.” (The drawing just above is from that same tattered field guide.)

Whatbird.com describes it thusly: “Large, ground-dwelling falcon with black body and finely barred tail, wing panels and upper breast. Head crest is black, facial skin is red, and large bill is blue-gray and hooked. Legs are long and yellow.”

Wikipedia says this: The behaviors of caracaras are considered quite strange in relation to other falcons. The bird is often seen walking on the ground in search of prey, using its long legs to maneuver its landscapes. In addition to a preference of walking over flying, the birds also create close bonds with their mates. Caracaras are territorial creatures who are year-round landlords of trees and land that they occupy. Their aggressiveness is an extension of this, which is why they have been seen taking food from much larger creatures like vultures. In flight, this bird is known for having very direct flight. It does not soar for leisure.”

Have a great three-day weekend.

Want to help?

1. Share this email to your friends and colleagues. Or have them email me so I can add them to my distribution list.
2. Subscribe to the Power Hungry Podcast.
3. Rent or buy Juice on iTunes or Amazon Prime.
4. Buy A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations and give it a positive review.
5. Follow me and Juice on Twitter.
6. Need a speaker for your conference, class, or webinar? Ping me!
Thanks!

Watch Juice for free on Roku!

If you haven't seen our documentary yet, here's a reminder: you can watch Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, on Roku, for free. Just click this link. If your friends haven't seen it, send them a link. Or if you have a prime membership, you can watch it on Amazon Prime.