The "niche" market is over 22m units sold globally in just the first 3 quarters of 2025. EV adoption has already reached ~10% market share of new autos in the US (and as pointed out in the article, when you zoom into metro level data many urban counties/cities are already at >20% market share of new cars).
Ford (like GM, Stellantis, VW, etc.) are facing a classic innovators dilemma. It's probably already too late for them to pivot and now they will have to sell to a shrinking ICE auto market over time. It will take a long time for total vehicle stock to turn over into EVs/hybrids, but the trend is unstoppable at this rate short of a total ban on non-ICE vehicles.
Good analysis. I have called it a niche product for a long time.
And I am on your team, so to speak, and all the way. But i could see owning a Tesla or something...
The price would need to come down a bit but...
I have solar. Not hooked to the grid solar. If I were in a position to build enough capacity I would buy an EV.
And no of course I couldn't keep it charged on solar year round.
I'm not a doomer or prepper. But I am an "I think the people who handle our infrastructure are fucking idiots" person. It would be nice to have an independent way to power a car at least part time. As an alternative. Because I think that it is inevitable there will be big grid failures in the near future, only then will the issues be addressed, and it will take a long time to fix it.
But that is just another niche.
BTW I would not recommend building sizeable solar systems unless you do have a bunch of appropriate background. These units are expensive and dangerous, and you better know what you are doing.
I won't defend Farley or Ford; nor do I care about climate change. With all that being said, self driving Teslas are live in Austin today and will roll out to Dallas, Houston and San Antonio next year. Do you know how many Teslas it takes in Houston to drop the wait time for a self driving unit to pick you up to less than 3 minutes? 200K units. It will take about 3 years for Tesla to reach that number on their self driving fleet and at that point owning a car in Houston for many people is optional. Ford can probably hang on selling F150s but if they want to have a meaningful future they need to innovate. It may be too late given they hole they have dug for themselves.
The EREV is the “killer ap” because it tows more for longer. Nobody wanted a truck that performed like a 2006 Lamborghini that could only tow for 100 miles.
The Trump admin pulled the subsidies and removed emissions regulations. It’s idiotic to blame Ford for not anticipating in that, since the first Trump admin kept all of it. Everything is easy in retrospect when you are a Monday morning quarterback.
The ‘hard pivot’ was away from 15 years of policies that favored EVs in every single developed country. Emissions regulations are not lunatic liberal unless you think conservatives like lung cancer, heart disease etc.
I wasn't disagreeing with you but I do think that the Biden White House was really misguided in pressing AOC's Green New Deal and I think that much of industry got caught up in it.
No, they saw Tesla’s stock price and became infatuated with it. Even SBF said Musk’s “superpower” is the Tesla stock price…not the actual vehicle but the value of the stock. SBF is a narcissist with a sense of entitlement and so he believed he could do more good had he been gifted a trillion dollar company valuation even if the company mined crypto which is the dumbest thing ever. Crypto and LNG—two of the dumbest things in history just burning natural gas and making it more expensive to heat homes and run ACs for the average American!
large mining loads act like highly flexible, “interruptible” data centers that can soak up excess power when it’s cheap and shut off instantly when the grid is stressed, which helps both economics and stability. Its enormously helpful for grid operators. This model also improves the business case for new wind/solar projects by monetizing otherwise stranded or curtailed energy, pushing the mining mix toward cleaner power over time. As far as LNG, there have been huge net economic and employment gains as well as geopolitical advantages. These are not dumb ideas.
Henry Hub never went down after the 2024/25 heating season…according to the LNG CEOs that’s because of LNG demand in addition to data centers and crypto in increasing natural gas prices. Biden presciently paused LNG export permits because he understands how natural gas impacts electricity rates. So Biden wanted LNG to replace Russian gas for our allies but a global LNG spot market shouldn’t be priority.
Trump/Wright are in the pocket of Big Energy and so they approved every LNG permit which increases demand which squandered our energy dominance. So integral to the energy dominance Biden achieved is cheap energy for Americans.
Trump seems to believe exporting LNG to China somehow makes America stronger but it makes America weaker if it increases electricity rates for Americans. MTG is correct, Trump isn’t focused enough on “affordability” and his LNG policies really highlight the disconnect with campaign promises versus his governance. Cheap natural gas will create a lot more jobs than another LNG export terminal and Energy Transfer wisely paused their LNG terminal to focus on pipelines to make America stronger by moving around molecules more efficiently.
Robert, this is a question rather than a comment. Can you please tell me why it is that Tesla has not taken the losses that Ford has taken on their EVs? What are they doing differently?
Thanks, dara, but that doesn't explain what it is that Tesla does to enhance sales or why increased sales make the car profitable, if it is. The more Ford EVs are sold, the more money they lose (as the joke goes, they lose money on every sale but they make it up on volume). As far as robots on wheels are concerned, in the US only about 20-25% of Tesla owners opt for driverless (semi) cars.
Next year the option for driverless will be available for all models that have the proper equipment and I think there will be a sea change in perception. I think its $2500 up front or $250 a year. When you can turn your car loose into the Tesla fleet in major metro Texas areas and it becomes an income producing asset that flips from 96% idle to 96% usage people will want it. As far as Tesla versus Ford.......Tesla is 15 years into this experiment and they didn't make money for a long time, particularly without the Fed's incentives. I think Ford just bungled it. The auto industry is being disrupted and its only just begun and while I would hate to see any of the Big 3 go out of business, all industries will be massively disrupted in the coming decade and there will be some big losers. This is going to be like Kodak on steroids.
I believe Ford has the highest numbers year after year for recalls. Something else Ford has is loyal customers who always buy their gas powered products no matter how many times they have to have their Ford towed to the dealership. I'm not one of them. I'm a Toyota guy.
He only lost $36 billion? He should get a raise! hahaha Zuckerberg lost $70 trying to get people to buy META glasses that make them see badly. And Musk's Space X is going public for $800 billion to fund a mission to Mars straight from a bad sci fi fantasy that is sure to fail.
America's business geniuses are too big to fail, and too dumb to succeed.
I started with hybrid vehicles with my 2011 Lincoln MKZ. It served me well for 10 years with zero issues in the hybrid engine. In 2021, I bought a Chrysler Pacifica hybrid van. I wanted a bigger vehicle for trips and to carry bicycles safely inside. This vehicle is a plug in hybrid so I can drive around town on pure electric (range about 30 miles). For longer trips, the gasoline engine works perfectly and provides excellent range and no anxiety. Thumbs up for hybrids!
Interesting that you put all the blame on Ford executives and none on the ideologues in the Biden administration who had forced the auto industry's hands.
All the legacy domestic automakers (is it even correct to call them the Big 3 anymore ??) have been political pawns to the Feds, especially the EPA, for many decades. Public taxpayer funds eventually and repeatedly find their way to continue floating these enterprises. That said, these automakers have been highly complicit in market distorting actions, including the whole mind-numbing U.S. EV fiasco.
(Not sure how to accurately comment on foreign carmakers selling into the North American market. I do know that Toyota business leaders have long been skeptical and outspoken regarding the general technical and economic infeasibility of EVs. Toyota seems to play the game several steps ahead of their competitors.)
The first major ICE manufacturer that talks Tesla into moving FSD technology from Electric to ICE wins big time, potentially driving huge revenue flows to both Tesla and whatever ICE manufacturer lucky enough to win. Seems obvious.
Maybe FSD ends up being a huge moneymaker. But we were told that was also supposed to be true of Cybertruck. I would similarly point out that businesses which may be fantastic currently may not stay that way forever. To wit:
2) The TSLA crowd at that time crowed that these fantastic margins would only get better as the company scaled up, plus competition was a joke and could never challenge TSLA.
3) TSLA Q3 2025 gross margin 18% and net margin 5.8%
The same people who were totally wrong in their thinking in 2022 are now claiming TSLA will rule both self driving vehicles and humanoid robots forever....with incredible profitability. I remain skeptical (although certainly not short against a freight train of unbridled enthusiasm).
A former Ford executive I know agrees that Farley should go; but also asks, “How about the Board of Directors? And the Chairman of the Board?
And the primary, controlling Shareholders?” He says, “Oh wait, they are the owners.” His point being Farley is the Ford Family's pick. And he deeply regrets holding on to his Ford shares.
The "niche" market is over 22m units sold globally in just the first 3 quarters of 2025. EV adoption has already reached ~10% market share of new autos in the US (and as pointed out in the article, when you zoom into metro level data many urban counties/cities are already at >20% market share of new cars).
Ford (like GM, Stellantis, VW, etc.) are facing a classic innovators dilemma. It's probably already too late for them to pivot and now they will have to sell to a shrinking ICE auto market over time. It will take a long time for total vehicle stock to turn over into EVs/hybrids, but the trend is unstoppable at this rate short of a total ban on non-ICE vehicles.
Good analysis. I have called it a niche product for a long time.
And I am on your team, so to speak, and all the way. But i could see owning a Tesla or something...
The price would need to come down a bit but...
I have solar. Not hooked to the grid solar. If I were in a position to build enough capacity I would buy an EV.
And no of course I couldn't keep it charged on solar year round.
I'm not a doomer or prepper. But I am an "I think the people who handle our infrastructure are fucking idiots" person. It would be nice to have an independent way to power a car at least part time. As an alternative. Because I think that it is inevitable there will be big grid failures in the near future, only then will the issues be addressed, and it will take a long time to fix it.
But that is just another niche.
BTW I would not recommend building sizeable solar systems unless you do have a bunch of appropriate background. These units are expensive and dangerous, and you better know what you are doing.
I won't defend Farley or Ford; nor do I care about climate change. With all that being said, self driving Teslas are live in Austin today and will roll out to Dallas, Houston and San Antonio next year. Do you know how many Teslas it takes in Houston to drop the wait time for a self driving unit to pick you up to less than 3 minutes? 200K units. It will take about 3 years for Tesla to reach that number on their self driving fleet and at that point owning a car in Houston for many people is optional. Ford can probably hang on selling F150s but if they want to have a meaningful future they need to innovate. It may be too late given they hole they have dug for themselves.
The EREV is the “killer ap” because it tows more for longer. Nobody wanted a truck that performed like a 2006 Lamborghini that could only tow for 100 miles.
This Republican loves his Tesla.
For a lighter moment, one might say an absurdity, check out my version of 'Twas The Night Before Net Zero at
https://open.substack.com/pub/examiningesgideas/p/twas-the-night-before-net-zero?r=jxn9u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The Trump admin pulled the subsidies and removed emissions regulations. It’s idiotic to blame Ford for not anticipating in that, since the first Trump admin kept all of it. Everything is easy in retrospect when you are a Monday morning quarterback.
right. "lets do a hard pivot to please these lunatic liberals in the White House."
The ‘hard pivot’ was away from 15 years of policies that favored EVs in every single developed country. Emissions regulations are not lunatic liberal unless you think conservatives like lung cancer, heart disease etc.
Oh you are full of shit there...
I wasn't disagreeing with you but I do think that the Biden White House was really misguided in pressing AOC's Green New Deal and I think that much of industry got caught up in it.
No, they saw Tesla’s stock price and became infatuated with it. Even SBF said Musk’s “superpower” is the Tesla stock price…not the actual vehicle but the value of the stock. SBF is a narcissist with a sense of entitlement and so he believed he could do more good had he been gifted a trillion dollar company valuation even if the company mined crypto which is the dumbest thing ever. Crypto and LNG—two of the dumbest things in history just burning natural gas and making it more expensive to heat homes and run ACs for the average American!
large mining loads act like highly flexible, “interruptible” data centers that can soak up excess power when it’s cheap and shut off instantly when the grid is stressed, which helps both economics and stability. Its enormously helpful for grid operators. This model also improves the business case for new wind/solar projects by monetizing otherwise stranded or curtailed energy, pushing the mining mix toward cleaner power over time. As far as LNG, there have been huge net economic and employment gains as well as geopolitical advantages. These are not dumb ideas.
Henry Hub never went down after the 2024/25 heating season…according to the LNG CEOs that’s because of LNG demand in addition to data centers and crypto in increasing natural gas prices. Biden presciently paused LNG export permits because he understands how natural gas impacts electricity rates. So Biden wanted LNG to replace Russian gas for our allies but a global LNG spot market shouldn’t be priority.
Trump/Wright are in the pocket of Big Energy and so they approved every LNG permit which increases demand which squandered our energy dominance. So integral to the energy dominance Biden achieved is cheap energy for Americans.
Trump seems to believe exporting LNG to China somehow makes America stronger but it makes America weaker if it increases electricity rates for Americans. MTG is correct, Trump isn’t focused enough on “affordability” and his LNG policies really highlight the disconnect with campaign promises versus his governance. Cheap natural gas will create a lot more jobs than another LNG export terminal and Energy Transfer wisely paused their LNG terminal to focus on pipelines to make America stronger by moving around molecules more efficiently.
Robert, this is a question rather than a comment. Can you please tell me why it is that Tesla has not taken the losses that Ford has taken on their EVs? What are they doing differently?
Because their cars sell and they have a very robust, visionary strategy. Its not about the cars. Starting next year they are just robots on wheels.
Thanks, dara, but that doesn't explain what it is that Tesla does to enhance sales or why increased sales make the car profitable, if it is. The more Ford EVs are sold, the more money they lose (as the joke goes, they lose money on every sale but they make it up on volume). As far as robots on wheels are concerned, in the US only about 20-25% of Tesla owners opt for driverless (semi) cars.
They’re competing against Tesla at Tesla’s game
Tesla:
Vertically integrated
Software-first
No dealers
No unions
No legacy pensions
No ICE cross-subsidy drag
Ford:
Union labor
Dealer markups
Warranty exposure
Old ERP systems
ICE profit subsidizing EV losses
Courtesy of Chat GBT
Next year the option for driverless will be available for all models that have the proper equipment and I think there will be a sea change in perception. I think its $2500 up front or $250 a year. When you can turn your car loose into the Tesla fleet in major metro Texas areas and it becomes an income producing asset that flips from 96% idle to 96% usage people will want it. As far as Tesla versus Ford.......Tesla is 15 years into this experiment and they didn't make money for a long time, particularly without the Fed's incentives. I think Ford just bungled it. The auto industry is being disrupted and its only just begun and while I would hate to see any of the Big 3 go out of business, all industries will be massively disrupted in the coming decade and there will be some big losers. This is going to be like Kodak on steroids.
I believe Ford has the highest numbers year after year for recalls. Something else Ford has is loyal customers who always buy their gas powered products no matter how many times they have to have their Ford towed to the dealership. I'm not one of them. I'm a Toyota guy.
exactly. I like Ford, but buying my telluride and tundra were easy decisions.
He only lost $36 billion? He should get a raise! hahaha Zuckerberg lost $70 trying to get people to buy META glasses that make them see badly. And Musk's Space X is going public for $800 billion to fund a mission to Mars straight from a bad sci fi fantasy that is sure to fail.
America's business geniuses are too big to fail, and too dumb to succeed.
I started with hybrid vehicles with my 2011 Lincoln MKZ. It served me well for 10 years with zero issues in the hybrid engine. In 2021, I bought a Chrysler Pacifica hybrid van. I wanted a bigger vehicle for trips and to carry bicycles safely inside. This vehicle is a plug in hybrid so I can drive around town on pure electric (range about 30 miles). For longer trips, the gasoline engine works perfectly and provides excellent range and no anxiety. Thumbs up for hybrids!
Interesting that you put all the blame on Ford executives and none on the ideologues in the Biden administration who had forced the auto industry's hands.
Was always going to fail. Wonder if the fuckwit ceo of ford's salary is tied to this fiasco.
All the legacy domestic automakers (is it even correct to call them the Big 3 anymore ??) have been political pawns to the Feds, especially the EPA, for many decades. Public taxpayer funds eventually and repeatedly find their way to continue floating these enterprises. That said, these automakers have been highly complicit in market distorting actions, including the whole mind-numbing U.S. EV fiasco.
(Not sure how to accurately comment on foreign carmakers selling into the North American market. I do know that Toyota business leaders have long been skeptical and outspoken regarding the general technical and economic infeasibility of EVs. Toyota seems to play the game several steps ahead of their competitors.)
Agree. As I said in another comment below, it's important to note that Toyota is now coming out with EVs of their own that have solid state batteries.
You correctly called this months, if not, years ago.
Too bad the right people in Ford’s leadership didn’t listen.
The first major ICE manufacturer that talks Tesla into moving FSD technology from Electric to ICE wins big time, potentially driving huge revenue flows to both Tesla and whatever ICE manufacturer lucky enough to win. Seems obvious.
Maybe FSD ends up being a huge moneymaker. But we were told that was also supposed to be true of Cybertruck. I would similarly point out that businesses which may be fantastic currently may not stay that way forever. To wit:
1) TSLA Q1 2022 gross margin 29.1% and operating margin 19.2%
2) The TSLA crowd at that time crowed that these fantastic margins would only get better as the company scaled up, plus competition was a joke and could never challenge TSLA.
3) TSLA Q3 2025 gross margin 18% and net margin 5.8%
The same people who were totally wrong in their thinking in 2022 are now claiming TSLA will rule both self driving vehicles and humanoid robots forever....with incredible profitability. I remain skeptical (although certainly not short against a freight train of unbridled enthusiasm).
A former Ford executive I know agrees that Farley should go; but also asks, “How about the Board of Directors? And the Chairman of the Board?
And the primary, controlling Shareholders?” He says, “Oh wait, they are the owners.” His point being Farley is the Ford Family's pick. And he deeply regrets holding on to his Ford shares.