10 Can't-Miss Election Predictions

The EV mandate will be scrapped and nine other prognostications.

The 2024 election results will look a lot like this vote map from 2020. Trump will win the rural counties. Harris will win the urban ones.

I have been interested in presidential politics and campaigns all my life. I cannot remember an uglier contest, or one with worse candidates, than the one that will be decided on Tuesday. As I explained in August, in “Five Reasons To Be Bullish On The United States,” I am all-day optimistic about the US. We have key advantages over the rest of the world, including world-class education, relatively good demographics, excellent geography and agriculture, cheap energy, and, more than anything, an enduring Constitution.

But we’re cursed with terrible politics and politicians.

What will happen on election day? The vote will almost certainly be close, like it was four years ago, with the outcome determined by a few thousand votes in a handful of states. Nevertheless, I hope that whoever wins, does so bigly. The last thing the US needs right now is a drawn-out process that gets decided by hanging chads.

Chads or no chads, here are my 10 predictions for this election and what we can expect when it’s over (with three charts). Want a preview? The IRA subsidies are here to stay, and the EPA’s EV mandate is dead regardless of who wins.