The Hydrogen Bust Is Here

Nine H2 projects in Europe & US have gone up in smoke since August. Harvard analysis savages Bill Gates’ claim that "cheap, green hydrogen" will be the Swiss army knife of decarbonization.

This graphic was published in 2022 alongside an article by Bill Gates titled, “To cut emissions, use this Swiss Army Knife.” Credit: GatesNotes.com

In April, two New York Times reporters, Stanley Reed and Melissa Eddy, traveled to the German city of Duisburg to visit a factory owned by steel maker ThyssenKrupp that makes electrolyzers, which produce hydrogen from water. Reed and Eddy declared, “If adopted widely, the devices could help clean up heavy industry such as steel-making, in Germany and elsewhere.” Reed and Eddy also claimed that the “concept of hydrogen as a renewable energy source has been around for years.”

That article might — repeat, might — mark the apogee of the hydrogen hype. As I noted in “The H Stands For Hype,” hydrogen is not a “source” of energy. It’s an energy carrier. (I also pointed out that calling hydrogen an energy source is akin to  calling Stormy Daniels an actress.)

I’m recalling Reed and Eddy’s article because at least nine hydrogen projects have been canceled or delayed over the past two months. Last week, Reuters reported that ThyssenKrupp, the same company that Reed and Eddy gushed about six months ago, is now “reviewing its plans for the production of green steel, casting doubt over its ambitions to use hydrogen in its push to decarbonize what is one of the most polluting industrial processes.” The article continued, noting that the company may halt its $3.3 billion hydrogen plans and that the review highlights “the challenges German industry faces in meeting emissions targets while staying competitive in a sector that suffers from high energy costs and cheaper products from Asian rivals.” (Hat tip here to David Blackmon, who reported on this last week.)

But ThyssenKrupp’s “review” is only one part of the hydrogen conflagration. Add in a new Harvard study that puts paid to Bill Gates’ claim that “cheap, green hydrogen” could be the Swiss army knife of decarbonization, and it becomes clear that the hype over what energy analyst Steve Brick rightly calls a  “thermodynamic obscenity,” is colliding with the hard realities of cost and physics. Let’s take a look.