On top of ridiculous policies, the college at all costs has had enormous consequences on the blue collar workforce. It is very common to hear people claim and tell their kids that college is the best/only option. Rhetoric about tradesmen being in trades because of their lack of smarts is mind numbing. Anyone ever had to wire up their own well pump or fix a broken pipe, or change a breaker because nobody was available on Sunday and you needed water? Good skills to have even if you went to college! A large percentage of white collar/knowledge workers are at the mercy of the construction workers but it hasn’t fully come home to roost. As the next generation of Mexicans in the trades begin to migrate to less physically demanding jobs we will really be in trouble. That is in residential construction, commercial and industrial whew…. Who knows how bad that will get since the schools have all but dropped any vocational classes in favor of some basket weaving or other useless curriculum. Glad I’m just a bird dog trainer with lots of hands on life skills taught to me by my dad or now a days You Tube! It’s a complicated world and continuous stupid policies are not going to make it less complicated.
Thank you Robert. I am frequently reminded, so endlessly quote, a saying an esteemed former boss of mine had in a frame on his office wall: "Nothing is impossible for those who don't have to do it".
Robert, I disagree with your use of the term "inflation" to describe price increases due to natural disasters, supply constraints, poor planning, dumb energy policy, etc. As Milton Friedman taught, inflation is a monetary phenomenon (always and everywhere!). It causes an increase in the general price level. What you describe (and describe very well) is the result of stupid policy, to be sure, but not stupid monetary policy and is going to raise the price of specific things, not the general price level. The remedy for what you identify is to fix energy policy, electric utility regulatory policy, etc. The remedy for inflation is fixing monetary policy. We should fix both but they are different problems.
Did you ask the equipment manufacturing executive what it would take to increase production capacity? It seems like his company has the necessary order backlog to justify investment and to attract financing required to support the project. How long would it take? What are the constraints that prevent this solution path.
Hi Rod. Yes, we discussed expanding capacity. But he specifically said that the big turbine makers only have a certain number of slots available on their manufacturing lines. It's similar to what automakers face. We did not discuss timelines for expansion. But remember there are only three big producers of the frame turbines: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi.
Robert Bryce's excellent article shows the cost to complete PacifiCorp's Energy Gateway is increasing. https://www.pacificorp.com/transmission/transmission-projects/energy-gateway.html The actual goal of this project is to move more of PacifiCorp's coal-fired power from Wyoming and neighboring states to the lucrative California electric power market.
CGNP is fighting PacifiCorp because there is more and more information showing that PacifiCorp continues to benefit when San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS) was needlessly closed at the end of January, 2012 instead of being repaired Around 1/3 of Southern California Edison's power for their default offering now comes from out-of-state generators hiding behind the California-specific legal euphemism "unspecified power." PacifiCorp's power is replacing the power that previously was supplied by SONGS. Unspecified power is mostly coal-fired power. Sending this mostly coal-fired power to California is very lucrative. Since November, 2014 PacifiCorp has sold almost a billion dollars of power to California via the blandly-named Western Energy Imbalance Market - which exploits a loophole in California environmental law.
Since 2016, California's last nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon has been in PacifiCorp's crosshairs. PacifiCorp is lobbying heavily at the state and federal level to support an indirect means of shutting down Diablo Canyon - CAISO grid regionalization - to support their commercial goal of expanding the market for their coal-fired power in California. To learn more, please read the series of articles at the GreenNUKE Substack https://greennuke.substack.com/
I'm disappointed to hear that Pacific corp is lobbying to shut down Diablo, but I think it's fine that they are selling coal-fired power to CA. With such out-of-state power my daughter in CA would be suffering more power outages.
“Of course, consumers will ultimately pay all of those costs.”
As we state in our next piece, we are near the inflection point at peak green stupid Not there yet but the costs of all this ignorance and/or malevolence are beginning to have consequences that cannot be hidden.
Sadly very little of this madness is necessary. We are wasting resources to connect worthless wind and solar resources we don’t need, that are hundreds of miles from load centers, all because some bought, corrupt, manipulated computer models say the temperature might go up at some point in the future.
All this new transmission is pure fallacy. Early in my career an old engineer told me it is easier to move molecules than electrons. In 50 years I have never seen a case where that isn’t true.
But even natural gas transmission projects are being prevented or delayed by the same harmful special interests. A natural gas transmission line moves the same order of magnitude of energy as a 500 kiloVolt AC transmission line.
I deal in large electrical apparatus and I have been predicting this for a couple years. I was technical vice chair for an IEEE conference in calgary this past March and I helped set up
A couple of panel discussions on Electrification and on Supply chain issues in the electrical industry because they are basically one topic.
It was easy to predict that the climate/insane focus on “climate emergency” was going to obliterate the supply chain for useful projects. I suggested a bad hurricane year would finish off what govt interference started. And here we are.
One transformer manufacturer told me a few years ago when I asked about rising prices then and he replied “core steel”. EVs use a different grade of high end core steel than power transformers and because EVs are so heavily subsidized the ev makers can pay higher price therefor production shifted to their needs.
Finally, a very senior electrical friend is a technical advisor for a company proposing to build a new copper mine in British Columbia, in June 2023 they had a govt hearing and the permit was rejected, they were told to start over.
The application was filed in 2009.
There is no stinking energy transition occurring today.
The mine permit denial is not surprising. The average interval for a new mine that has come online in the past few years is almost 18 years. I didn't talk about the rising prices of base metals in this piece. I will focus on that issue in a future article. And you're right: there's no energy transition. There is a lot of talk about the energy transition, but hydrocarbon use continues to grow far faster than alt-energy use.
On top of ridiculous policies, the college at all costs has had enormous consequences on the blue collar workforce. It is very common to hear people claim and tell their kids that college is the best/only option. Rhetoric about tradesmen being in trades because of their lack of smarts is mind numbing. Anyone ever had to wire up their own well pump or fix a broken pipe, or change a breaker because nobody was available on Sunday and you needed water? Good skills to have even if you went to college! A large percentage of white collar/knowledge workers are at the mercy of the construction workers but it hasn’t fully come home to roost. As the next generation of Mexicans in the trades begin to migrate to less physically demanding jobs we will really be in trouble. That is in residential construction, commercial and industrial whew…. Who knows how bad that will get since the schools have all but dropped any vocational classes in favor of some basket weaving or other useless curriculum. Glad I’m just a bird dog trainer with lots of hands on life skills taught to me by my dad or now a days You Tube! It’s a complicated world and continuous stupid policies are not going to make it less complicated.
Thank you Robert. I am frequently reminded, so endlessly quote, a saying an esteemed former boss of mine had in a frame on his office wall: "Nothing is impossible for those who don't have to do it".
Robert, I disagree with your use of the term "inflation" to describe price increases due to natural disasters, supply constraints, poor planning, dumb energy policy, etc. As Milton Friedman taught, inflation is a monetary phenomenon (always and everywhere!). It causes an increase in the general price level. What you describe (and describe very well) is the result of stupid policy, to be sure, but not stupid monetary policy and is going to raise the price of specific things, not the general price level. The remedy for what you identify is to fix energy policy, electric utility regulatory policy, etc. The remedy for inflation is fixing monetary policy. We should fix both but they are different problems.
Yep. And you don’t need to be a genius to see your point!
That's a fair point. I would add that a key factor here is the declining availability (and quality) of labor.
Robert
Did you ask the equipment manufacturing executive what it would take to increase production capacity? It seems like his company has the necessary order backlog to justify investment and to attract financing required to support the project. How long would it take? What are the constraints that prevent this solution path.
Hi Rod. Yes, we discussed expanding capacity. But he specifically said that the big turbine makers only have a certain number of slots available on their manufacturing lines. It's similar to what automakers face. We did not discuss timelines for expansion. But remember there are only three big producers of the frame turbines: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi.
Robert Bryce's excellent article shows the cost to complete PacifiCorp's Energy Gateway is increasing. https://www.pacificorp.com/transmission/transmission-projects/energy-gateway.html The actual goal of this project is to move more of PacifiCorp's coal-fired power from Wyoming and neighboring states to the lucrative California electric power market.
CGNP is fighting PacifiCorp because there is more and more information showing that PacifiCorp continues to benefit when San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS) was needlessly closed at the end of January, 2012 instead of being repaired Around 1/3 of Southern California Edison's power for their default offering now comes from out-of-state generators hiding behind the California-specific legal euphemism "unspecified power." PacifiCorp's power is replacing the power that previously was supplied by SONGS. Unspecified power is mostly coal-fired power. Sending this mostly coal-fired power to California is very lucrative. Since November, 2014 PacifiCorp has sold almost a billion dollars of power to California via the blandly-named Western Energy Imbalance Market - which exploits a loophole in California environmental law.
Since 2016, California's last nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon has been in PacifiCorp's crosshairs. PacifiCorp is lobbying heavily at the state and federal level to support an indirect means of shutting down Diablo Canyon - CAISO grid regionalization - to support their commercial goal of expanding the market for their coal-fired power in California. To learn more, please read the series of articles at the GreenNUKE Substack https://greennuke.substack.com/
I'm disappointed to hear that Pacific corp is lobbying to shut down Diablo, but I think it's fine that they are selling coal-fired power to CA. With such out-of-state power my daughter in CA would be suffering more power outages.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...
https://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2018/1/11/jerry-browns-secret-war-on-clean-energy
Why should Republicans get all the fun and profit of shilling for dark money?
Regrettably, California energy politics are riddled with corruption. One of my colleagues who has some knowledge says that the situation is worse than New Jersey. Here's an introduction: https://greennuke.substack.com/p/how-did-the-cpuc-decide-to-deny-cgnp
“Of course, consumers will ultimately pay all of those costs.”
As we state in our next piece, we are near the inflection point at peak green stupid Not there yet but the costs of all this ignorance and/or malevolence are beginning to have consequences that cannot be hidden.
Strong effort here, Robert. Well done. 👏
Thanks.
I'm looking forward to your next article, environMENTAL.
Sadly very little of this madness is necessary. We are wasting resources to connect worthless wind and solar resources we don’t need, that are hundreds of miles from load centers, all because some bought, corrupt, manipulated computer models say the temperature might go up at some point in the future.
All this new transmission is pure fallacy. Early in my career an old engineer told me it is easier to move molecules than electrons. In 50 years I have never seen a case where that isn’t true.
But even natural gas transmission projects are being prevented or delayed by the same harmful special interests. A natural gas transmission line moves the same order of magnitude of energy as a 500 kiloVolt AC transmission line.
Yup. It’s all a choice Lee….
Yes, it’s all a waste, for nothing
And useful projects with useful outputs get delayed or cancelled because suddenly electrical gear is the new long lead.
All based on stupid policy choices.
I deal in large electrical apparatus and I have been predicting this for a couple years. I was technical vice chair for an IEEE conference in calgary this past March and I helped set up
A couple of panel discussions on Electrification and on Supply chain issues in the electrical industry because they are basically one topic.
It was easy to predict that the climate/insane focus on “climate emergency” was going to obliterate the supply chain for useful projects. I suggested a bad hurricane year would finish off what govt interference started. And here we are.
One transformer manufacturer told me a few years ago when I asked about rising prices then and he replied “core steel”. EVs use a different grade of high end core steel than power transformers and because EVs are so heavily subsidized the ev makers can pay higher price therefor production shifted to their needs.
Finally, a very senior electrical friend is a technical advisor for a company proposing to build a new copper mine in British Columbia, in June 2023 they had a govt hearing and the permit was rejected, they were told to start over.
The application was filed in 2009.
There is no stinking energy transition occurring today.
The mine permit denial is not surprising. The average interval for a new mine that has come online in the past few years is almost 18 years. I didn't talk about the rising prices of base metals in this piece. I will focus on that issue in a future article. And you're right: there's no energy transition. There is a lot of talk about the energy transition, but hydrocarbon use continues to grow far faster than alt-energy use.
Never read Robert Bryce before bed time
And I thought XCel's project in Colorado was expensive (3 million per mile)
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/local-government/xcel-kicks-off-second-phase-of-17b-power-pathway-project/article_0a4f464b-37a2-5a41-9200-f7b80572efdf.html#:~:text=Xcel%20Energy%20officials%20gathered%20recently,%241.7%20billion%20Power%20Pathway%20project.