Our political system is a mess, voters are divided, and the federal debt is soaring. But the US still has enormous advantages over the rest of the world.
The decline of the West is a myth. The US and EU remain immensely wealthy and productive. The creative destruction of technology change poses challenge of adapting and growing institutions for all countries embarking on substantial software enabled economy. The political challenge of the nativists and BRICS to the western alliance has prompted a regression of liberalism from its former post WWII principles. Across the West liberalism is congealing a new political formation of protectionism, NGO censorship, escalation of secessionist wars, and munchausen victim worship (including mother nature). As through history the feedback of complex systems limits the damage of human foibles and hopefully the liberal regression can be restrained as much as possible to rhetoric. Security of global trade and communications infrastructure is the foundation of human exit from poverty and it is not feasible to replace US military hegemony, even as China becomes a superpower. Either the hard way or a much harder way, US hegemony and its internal military industrial complex must restructure to provide security affordably, which means leveraging the rising wealth & military capacity in the Rest.
Although I would like to be optimistic many of the things cited have been undermined and continue to be undermined by a substandard educational system turning out student who cannot think for themselves becoming political pawns of primarily Democrats-(teachers unions support Democrats overwhelmingly), policies and harmful Congressional legislation, especially by Democrats. Right now, representative government is failing and things are getting worse. The dream of home ownership is out of reach by at least 75% or more of Americans. The problems are deep seated and there is no easy or quick fix. Trump-Vance if they win is a good start in reversing things, however it is likely to take one to two generations to turn the massive ship of state around. The Supreme Court ruled “student loan forgiveness” was unconstitutional, however Biden continues to approve student loan forgiveness by presidential decree. So with the support of Democrats in Congress Joe the career politician with no or negligible experience in the free enterprise system is undeterred.
That most horrible myth of the American Dream, fired by greed, sustained by and finally destroyed by it. Not surprising to see you hoisted on your own petard. If only you would close your borders and get on with eating yourselves. Leave the rest of the world alone.
Thanks Robert. It's nice to hear some reasons for optimism cutting through the barrage of negative energy that floods the airwaves each day. The last section reminds me of the essay I wrote on the occasion of the national birthdays of Canada (July 1st) and the United States. The constitution is a unique document and a reason to be optimistic about the United States.
Regarding: "Yes, it matters who we elect in November to occupy the White House. "
YES AND, it also matters who people elect on the local level.
A good judge, mayor, city council member, school board member, sheriff, etc. can make a massive difference in one's local quality of life. They're all elected at the local level and in many cases people focus too much on national politics which does matter but some issues are a local or state ordeal.
Furthermore, most of the politicians who make it up to the DC level and into the White House don't come from nowhere. They more often than not get their start in local politics and work their way up.
So weed out the bad ones and select the good ones while it's early.
Robert Bryce and many of the people that post here offer great insights on energy and other things of substance. Given the chance to time travel, I wonder what some of you would advise our Founders to change in the Constitution if you could just make one suggestion and you could only go back 5 minutes?
Well, you could start by removing the first clause in the 2nd amendment, so that it would be clear that an individual right to be armed and defend oneself was intended and is not some militia dependent right.
The challenge is the Founders made it difficult to change the Constitution. It has been amended many times but the issues required broad consensus. All decisions have unknown consequences, so I think our Constitution being difficult to change was good forward thinking.
For those who are interested in such things, Yuval Levin's book "American Covenant" describes how we need to return to our constitutional roots to resolve today's divisiveness. A core tenant of Levin's discussion is that "the breakdown of political culture in our day is not a function of our having forgotten how to agree with one another but of our having forgotten how to disagree constructively.
People are seized by the idea that they know everything because they're "smart." When it's pointed out they don't know everything, and in fact know very little, they get extremely angry and begin calling you names. It sounds weird, but that is the main problem besetting our country. People with just enough information to think they understand an insanely complicated subject, bossing around everyone else.
Say what you will about out electrical system, but it is a fantastical complex work of engineering, that took decades to construct. People who want to change this system still think it is individual electrons traveling down wires to your hose, like water in a pipe. And when you point out that analogy is obviously wrong, they get upset.
They are smart because they support renewables which makes them smart. Everything is self-reinforcing stupidity.
so many reads with almost 100% alignment and now this.
Almost any of your bullet points don´t hold water in my POV.
Education has been highlighted by many fellow commentators, so no need to press this;
Agriculture:
Praise the US being the biggest exporter of agricultural commodities? You know who number two is? Netherlands with a population of 17 Million and a landsurface of 41.500 sqkm which equals roughly 1/240th part of the US?
And what about the quality of those american Agriculture Products - mostly GMO, carefully "protected" by all these wonderful helpers from Monsanto et.al.?
Not to mention Billionaire Oligarchs bying up large swaths of farmland, grassland and such.
Energy:
Abundance may seem great, but what about the details? Many of the crudes bubble up where the matching refineries are missing. It has to be transported over long distances or exchanged with other countries. Shipping LNG across oceans in dirty ships is probably the stupidest possible option. No, not because of Co2, there are enough other toxic substances, not even taking into account the energy required.
I won´t go into detail of the IAE figures shown, but can check at first sight that they are flawed. France produces electricity at 50% of the German costs. Facts from first hands, not from some statisticians.
Demography:
What's so great about having a young population when the younger ones in particular are poorly educated, come from socially disadvantaged families and the workforce is shrinking despite a rapidly growing population? Almost all new jobs are created in the lowest qualification and income levels? At the same time, non-Hispanic, non-black, non-Asian native Americans have lost over 1,200,000 jobs since Biden moved into the Oval Office. Mostly well paid and qualified jobs.
Constitution:
As an european observer I´m not going to dive into your Constitution, but as far as one can see, the violations are endless the 70%+ by Big Pharma financed Media Circus transports any narrative to deceit people thats asked for and Attorney Generals who are elected like politicians and accept massive campaign aid for their campaigns do not exactly inspire confidence in a solid legal system.
I have some questions. Regarding America's agriculture, the European Union is the 5th largest export market for US farmers and ranchers. If that's a problem, would you give it back please? There are still many in America who hunger; if you're complaining, we could sure use it. I also believe we are a healthy people, in spite of the propaganda about GMOs and such. You seem to forget that those wonderful helpers have made it possible for US farmers to increase the number of people fed by US products from less than 20 to over 160, an 800 percent increase. And in spite of those billionaire oligarchs, it is still possible for a small farmer to purchase land.
Regarding energy, the EU receives 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of LNG from US exports. What would your prices and economy be without those imports? Where would Europe be after NordStream was destroyed were it not for US imports. How many Europeans would have died had that gas not been available last winter?
Regarding demography, our young people, no matter how poor or how socially disadvantaged, have a future because our education system is open to all and not just the privileged. If it is so bad, why do we have so many European graduate students?
Yes, we have lawbreakers. Who doesn't? We have Big Pharma, Germany has Big Wind; Drax is a perfect example of European greenwashing. But nowhere in Europe will you find a government founded on the premise that we "hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed."
Yes, America has its flaws - many of them, in fact. But tell me, do France or Switzerland or Sweden or Greece have immigration problems? If life there is so much better, why aren't people flocking to your borders?
first of all there seems a huge misunderstanding. Critizicing Roberts stances doesn´t mean at all that I am lauding Europe. The absolute contrary. We´re in the stage of disengagement, have a second home for away and are currently checking all necessary information to decide if we make that second our first home. In fact I am higly negative on EU (especially that patchwork of 27 states that fit so badly in a tight uniformed scheme). And to be clear: I love my homecountry (as it was) and Europe as well. It´s huge variety in habits, kitchens, tempers, landscapes, climates, and much more.
The wonderful helpers like Round Up that made Monsanto probably the most sued company in the whole US? What you mention is the gift of fertilizers, all deriving from German inventions btw..
The lawbrakers sit in Congress, the AG-offices and the White House that is what´s concerning. We have enough of such cronies here too. No doubt. Criticizing one side doesn´t necessarily exclude the other side.
If it would be only Big Pharma.... Ever heard Eisenhowers farewell adress from 1961?
The Greenwashing either by German government and the EU-Commission is hilarious. I could burst with rage daily about all those lies. Biden Admin tried to follow suit to my observation.
The constitutions worldwide hold wonderful poems alas the daily reality couldn´t be further from those words. That you mention Switzerland amongst those european countries to name bad examples shows that you do not know european realities. If there is one single country in Europe that is close to the ideal of a democracy it´s Switzerland.
France has huge immigration problems stemming from their colonial history mainly in Africa and their destructive policies since mostly socailist governments did´t shut down the influx. Macron the current president, a Rothschild apprentice and extremely decoupled individual (from the citizens) is truely a bad (good) example for whats wrong in and with most European countries. Btw he is even more powerful as a president than the US counterpart. Not good at all.
The biggest influx and now unsurmounting Problems with migration has Germany. Countries bordering the Mediterranean which is the open flank for illegal immigration like Italy, Greece and Spain conduct their "enrichers" to move on to Germany. Havng the largest benefits for such people, expenses of to 7000 Dollar per Person per month it is the biggest magnet in EU.
I agree that there is solid reason to believe in the USA. We have some true idiotic issues - we are attacking energy which us the economy; - we have a new crop of incapable recently educated people who defy the definition of educated employable people, and it’s not just high school but also university level graduates.
The governmental issues will get worked out as more people fail to function in the economy and as government runs out of free money giveaways, albeit likely longer than one election cycle. The current push to communism will die, even if it’s an unnatural death.
The decline of the West is a myth. The US and EU remain immensely wealthy and productive. The creative destruction of technology change poses challenge of adapting and growing institutions for all countries embarking on substantial software enabled economy. The political challenge of the nativists and BRICS to the western alliance has prompted a regression of liberalism from its former post WWII principles. Across the West liberalism is congealing a new political formation of protectionism, NGO censorship, escalation of secessionist wars, and munchausen victim worship (including mother nature). As through history the feedback of complex systems limits the damage of human foibles and hopefully the liberal regression can be restrained as much as possible to rhetoric. Security of global trade and communications infrastructure is the foundation of human exit from poverty and it is not feasible to replace US military hegemony, even as China becomes a superpower. Either the hard way or a much harder way, US hegemony and its internal military industrial complex must restructure to provide security affordably, which means leveraging the rising wealth & military capacity in the Rest.
w ahh post
I am optimistic to the point of idiocy .... Molly Ivins
Idiocracy . . . . movie title by another Austinite Mike Judge
As long as the dollar is the world's reserve currency, we can print all the money we want to....
So let's party!!!!!!!!!
Although I would like to be optimistic many of the things cited have been undermined and continue to be undermined by a substandard educational system turning out student who cannot think for themselves becoming political pawns of primarily Democrats-(teachers unions support Democrats overwhelmingly), policies and harmful Congressional legislation, especially by Democrats. Right now, representative government is failing and things are getting worse. The dream of home ownership is out of reach by at least 75% or more of Americans. The problems are deep seated and there is no easy or quick fix. Trump-Vance if they win is a good start in reversing things, however it is likely to take one to two generations to turn the massive ship of state around. The Supreme Court ruled “student loan forgiveness” was unconstitutional, however Biden continues to approve student loan forgiveness by presidential decree. So with the support of Democrats in Congress Joe the career politician with no or negligible experience in the free enterprise system is undeterred.
you're a bit overly optimistic:
- The universities, even the stelar ones are not as great as they sound but waste a lot in indoctrination, wasteful administration and navel gazing
-we still need to secure the border even though we're not in a war with Mexico or Canada.
-There's a constitution but also a Supreme Court which overturns decisions by 4-3.
That most horrible myth of the American Dream, fired by greed, sustained by and finally destroyed by it. Not surprising to see you hoisted on your own petard. If only you would close your borders and get on with eating yourselves. Leave the rest of the world alone.
Thanks Robert. It's nice to hear some reasons for optimism cutting through the barrage of negative energy that floods the airwaves each day. The last section reminds me of the essay I wrote on the occasion of the national birthdays of Canada (July 1st) and the United States. The constitution is a unique document and a reason to be optimistic about the United States.
Well done.
Superb!
Six reasons in truth, in that it can produce such thoughtful analysts as yourself and Doomberg.
Thank you Robert for the dose of optimism!
Regarding: "Yes, it matters who we elect in November to occupy the White House. "
YES AND, it also matters who people elect on the local level.
A good judge, mayor, city council member, school board member, sheriff, etc. can make a massive difference in one's local quality of life. They're all elected at the local level and in many cases people focus too much on national politics which does matter but some issues are a local or state ordeal.
Furthermore, most of the politicians who make it up to the DC level and into the White House don't come from nowhere. They more often than not get their start in local politics and work their way up.
So weed out the bad ones and select the good ones while it's early.
Robert Bryce and many of the people that post here offer great insights on energy and other things of substance. Given the chance to time travel, I wonder what some of you would advise our Founders to change in the Constitution if you could just make one suggestion and you could only go back 5 minutes?
Well, you could start by removing the first clause in the 2nd amendment, so that it would be clear that an individual right to be armed and defend oneself was intended and is not some militia dependent right.
The challenge is the Founders made it difficult to change the Constitution. It has been amended many times but the issues required broad consensus. All decisions have unknown consequences, so I think our Constitution being difficult to change was good forward thinking.
For those who are interested in such things, Yuval Levin's book "American Covenant" describes how we need to return to our constitutional roots to resolve today's divisiveness. A core tenant of Levin's discussion is that "the breakdown of political culture in our day is not a function of our having forgotten how to agree with one another but of our having forgotten how to disagree constructively.
It is worthwhile read
Thank you for the reccomendatation!
People are seized by the idea that they know everything because they're "smart." When it's pointed out they don't know everything, and in fact know very little, they get extremely angry and begin calling you names. It sounds weird, but that is the main problem besetting our country. People with just enough information to think they understand an insanely complicated subject, bossing around everyone else.
Say what you will about out electrical system, but it is a fantastical complex work of engineering, that took decades to construct. People who want to change this system still think it is individual electrons traveling down wires to your hose, like water in a pipe. And when you point out that analogy is obviously wrong, they get upset.
They are smart because they support renewables which makes them smart. Everything is self-reinforcing stupidity.
Dear Author,
so many reads with almost 100% alignment and now this.
Almost any of your bullet points don´t hold water in my POV.
Education has been highlighted by many fellow commentators, so no need to press this;
Agriculture:
Praise the US being the biggest exporter of agricultural commodities? You know who number two is? Netherlands with a population of 17 Million and a landsurface of 41.500 sqkm which equals roughly 1/240th part of the US?
And what about the quality of those american Agriculture Products - mostly GMO, carefully "protected" by all these wonderful helpers from Monsanto et.al.?
Not to mention Billionaire Oligarchs bying up large swaths of farmland, grassland and such.
Energy:
Abundance may seem great, but what about the details? Many of the crudes bubble up where the matching refineries are missing. It has to be transported over long distances or exchanged with other countries. Shipping LNG across oceans in dirty ships is probably the stupidest possible option. No, not because of Co2, there are enough other toxic substances, not even taking into account the energy required.
I won´t go into detail of the IAE figures shown, but can check at first sight that they are flawed. France produces electricity at 50% of the German costs. Facts from first hands, not from some statisticians.
Demography:
What's so great about having a young population when the younger ones in particular are poorly educated, come from socially disadvantaged families and the workforce is shrinking despite a rapidly growing population? Almost all new jobs are created in the lowest qualification and income levels? At the same time, non-Hispanic, non-black, non-Asian native Americans have lost over 1,200,000 jobs since Biden moved into the Oval Office. Mostly well paid and qualified jobs.
Constitution:
As an european observer I´m not going to dive into your Constitution, but as far as one can see, the violations are endless the 70%+ by Big Pharma financed Media Circus transports any narrative to deceit people thats asked for and Attorney Generals who are elected like politicians and accept massive campaign aid for their campaigns do not exactly inspire confidence in a solid legal system.
I have some questions. Regarding America's agriculture, the European Union is the 5th largest export market for US farmers and ranchers. If that's a problem, would you give it back please? There are still many in America who hunger; if you're complaining, we could sure use it. I also believe we are a healthy people, in spite of the propaganda about GMOs and such. You seem to forget that those wonderful helpers have made it possible for US farmers to increase the number of people fed by US products from less than 20 to over 160, an 800 percent increase. And in spite of those billionaire oligarchs, it is still possible for a small farmer to purchase land.
Regarding energy, the EU receives 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of LNG from US exports. What would your prices and economy be without those imports? Where would Europe be after NordStream was destroyed were it not for US imports. How many Europeans would have died had that gas not been available last winter?
Regarding demography, our young people, no matter how poor or how socially disadvantaged, have a future because our education system is open to all and not just the privileged. If it is so bad, why do we have so many European graduate students?
Yes, we have lawbreakers. Who doesn't? We have Big Pharma, Germany has Big Wind; Drax is a perfect example of European greenwashing. But nowhere in Europe will you find a government founded on the premise that we "hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed."
Yes, America has its flaws - many of them, in fact. But tell me, do France or Switzerland or Sweden or Greece have immigration problems? If life there is so much better, why aren't people flocking to your borders?
Dear Barry,
first of all there seems a huge misunderstanding. Critizicing Roberts stances doesn´t mean at all that I am lauding Europe. The absolute contrary. We´re in the stage of disengagement, have a second home for away and are currently checking all necessary information to decide if we make that second our first home. In fact I am higly negative on EU (especially that patchwork of 27 states that fit so badly in a tight uniformed scheme). And to be clear: I love my homecountry (as it was) and Europe as well. It´s huge variety in habits, kitchens, tempers, landscapes, climates, and much more.
The wonderful helpers like Round Up that made Monsanto probably the most sued company in the whole US? What you mention is the gift of fertilizers, all deriving from German inventions btw..
The lawbrakers sit in Congress, the AG-offices and the White House that is what´s concerning. We have enough of such cronies here too. No doubt. Criticizing one side doesn´t necessarily exclude the other side.
If it would be only Big Pharma.... Ever heard Eisenhowers farewell adress from 1961?
The Greenwashing either by German government and the EU-Commission is hilarious. I could burst with rage daily about all those lies. Biden Admin tried to follow suit to my observation.
The constitutions worldwide hold wonderful poems alas the daily reality couldn´t be further from those words. That you mention Switzerland amongst those european countries to name bad examples shows that you do not know european realities. If there is one single country in Europe that is close to the ideal of a democracy it´s Switzerland.
France has huge immigration problems stemming from their colonial history mainly in Africa and their destructive policies since mostly socailist governments did´t shut down the influx. Macron the current president, a Rothschild apprentice and extremely decoupled individual (from the citizens) is truely a bad (good) example for whats wrong in and with most European countries. Btw he is even more powerful as a president than the US counterpart. Not good at all.
The biggest influx and now unsurmounting Problems with migration has Germany. Countries bordering the Mediterranean which is the open flank for illegal immigration like Italy, Greece and Spain conduct their "enrichers" to move on to Germany. Havng the largest benefits for such people, expenses of to 7000 Dollar per Person per month it is the biggest magnet in EU.
So far so bad. Thank you for the exchange.
Best Kairo
I agree that there is solid reason to believe in the USA. We have some true idiotic issues - we are attacking energy which us the economy; - we have a new crop of incapable recently educated people who defy the definition of educated employable people, and it’s not just high school but also university level graduates.
The governmental issues will get worked out as more people fail to function in the economy and as government runs out of free money giveaways, albeit likely longer than one election cycle. The current push to communism will die, even if it’s an unnatural death.