David Wallace-Wells claims solar energy is getting so cheap it could be “effectively free.” But solar prices aren’t falling, they’re rising. And solar’s being left in the shade by natty.
Excellent article, as usual. Furthermore, the geopolitical aspect should be emphasized even more (the subjugation and slave labor exploitation of the Uyghurs is bad enough) as the wily Chinese aim at total domination of the world market for solar panels. This can never be in the interest of any Western country. Ironically, boosted by American tax payers through the RRHI (Reverse Robin Hood Insanity).
The cheapest power plant makes and sells power 24/7/365. What solar does is make all power plants into peaker plants, flipping on and off. The cheapest power isn't based on LCOE, it is based on how much you run the plant. Energy sources that make electricity 24/7/365 are cheap. Those that don't are wildly expensive.
Nuclear is expensive if you are stupid enough to use it to load follow, it's cheap as baseload. Using it less costs you more. Imagine a taxi. If I have 10 customers in one day, or just one customer, which can charge LESS for a ride? Obviously, if I'm getting 10 customers, I can make just as much money charging less. Nuclear, gas and coal plants are the same - you need to spread the fixed costs over as many customers as possible.
Base load might cost $30/Mwh. Peaker plants charge $100/MWh to the $1,000s/Mwh. That is what is driving cost - if I say solar is half the cost of natural gas, so what? If I have to pay 4, 8 or 10X to balance and back it up it is going to be very expensive energy.
Free solar will be the most expensive power on Earth.
I will say again, the way forward is Gravity Windmills. We will innovate past traditional nuclear reactors to passive “Cool Nuclear” as these crises worsen. Electromagnetic Gravity Harvesting will certainly be one of the key Harvest class technologies that will emerge and compete for market share. Bridging the consumption gap between the responsible use of fossil fuels and the severe limitations of wind and solar. Search my name on YouTube, Hubert Gillespie. We spent $7k on our short animated video depicting the revolutionary concept. I will say again, “We seek no funding, we are merely the messengers “. Our responsibility is to build public support while working with industry leaders to develop these technologies. Harvest Class Technologies and Modular Grids are the future for the American People and the world at large. The powers that be will no longer sell us electricity, they will sell us the Equipment to harvest our own. hughgillespie@wowway.com
According to a Zillow study, a solar installation can increase a home's resale value by about 4%, or up to $6,000 for each kilowatt of electricity you have installed.
“For the record, I’m opposed to all energy subsidies unless I’m the one getting them. But I digress.” I had to chuckle at that! Yes, just like those of us who sent back our free Corona checks from the government! Ha! I know you didn’t get solar panels to virtue signal, but so many people believe they are actually effectively reducing their carbon footprint. Never mind the energy used in mining and manufacturing of the panels, but the big kicker is disposal of “retired” panels. 9 out of 10 panels in CA are not recycled (too expensive) and thus pollute the land and watershed.
Should a surcharge be put on the purchase of solar panels until appropriate recycling procedures are achieved? The surcharge should be invested in developing the solar panel recycling methods. Nothing should be landfilled!
Excellent point, much like what many States do with drilling/oil producing companies when a well is permitted-they pay a fee or into a fund for the future cost of capping a non-producing well.
Didn't know that. Thanks. My reference was sort of based on the deposit on soda bottles before they became plastic, or disposable...yes, I'm old...ish.
There are purported recycling methods for solar panels that can recover metals and Silicon. Not sure of the sustainability/profitability, but deficiencies should be covered by the fund. Need to keep as much out of landfills as possible without that material becoming "construction fill".
The cost of solar and wind goes up per kWh, the more you have of it- although admittedly the threshold on wind is significantly higher than that of solar.
Your quip about being against any subsidy of which your are not a beneficiary reminds me somewhat of an old Rupert Murdoch quote, from around the time Tim Berners-Lee was ruminating about inventing something for everyone...
"I'm against every monopoly other than my own." - Rupert Murdoch.
My takeaways are, zero cost inputs and subsidies are compelling enough for the author to buy it. That comment favorably changed the tone of piece, I think. Concise, well sourced, good writing. A pleasure to read!
That’s changed , now solar panels last 30 years not 25. Just about all of them are guaranteed to be putting out 85% of their power at 25 years old . Many now are bifacial meaning they get sunlight from both sides ,like off snow .
Most now are getting over 22% power from the sun . Not 19% anymore. With even more to come in the near future at 24% .
They now take up less space with more power because of what I just posted .
And recycling them have now become much cheaper and easier then just two years ago .
And the average home with solar now sells for 20-30 thousand more . There by making back for those that bought them the less then 20 thousand they paid to get them in the first place.
And now we have “solar farms” . That take care of maintenance , insurance , and other services .
With low costs to invest in ,and most of the paperwork is done by companies that sell shares of the farm.
Mr. Ende, so true. Took a solar energy class in ‘85 from a guy who had been involved with solar for over a decade then. Yes, efficiency has increased today, but not to the extent that makes it “a miracle”. Degradation is real but never talked about.
Well, all here seem to be in agreement on this, and I hate to utter a discouraging word ... but I'm not sure the hypercomplicated legal environment of California is the place to go looking for indicative price figures.
You might do better looking at Australia, where it's one national government, and one island continent that can't buy or sell power outside, to provide a clearer view. Australia has gone heavily into solar in particular. Quick googles to the usual places you find stats gave me power prices:
...which nearly doubled from 2005-2013, before any significant solar in the mix. That was the price of natural gas, of course, which then dropped in 2014. Prices went down steadily from 2018 to 2022 in spite of solar rising rapidly in those years.
The price of gas generation went up in 2022 with the explosion of gas price with Putin's invasion, of course, but recent articles indicate that prices came back down as gas moderated:
"The report by the council found that in Queensland, rooftop solar and large-scale renewable projects brought down average wholesale power prices by $117 per megawatt hour in 2023."
Other comments on the Australian power mix - when went from 20% renewable to 40% renewable the last few years, a breakneck conversion speed - indicate it has a moderating effect on prices. The sun may be unpredictable hour to hour, but it is predictable year to year. Gas is just not.
Solar and gas are very hard to compare: the former is all upfront capital, the later is mostly ongoing fuel costs, they're such opposites. And the that "upfront capital" cost goes way up when the interest rate does, which it has for two years. That should really be factored into any analysis.
Trust me, solar is not cheap. I too live in the Austin area (in the Pedernales Electric Coop territory) and have 61 360 watt solar panels and 3 Tesla PowerWalls on my home. Total install cost was $126,000 ($88,200 after 30% tax credit). In 2023, the first full year after installation, my system generated 35.7Mwh of power (19% capacity factor in sunny central Texas with a near perfect south slight west facing exposure). The batteries were good for 10.1MWh of charge and 9.0MWh of discharge with 1MWh of losses. Our total home usage for the year was 40.8MWh. We relied on grid imports from PEC for 13.6MWh and exported 7.4MWh to PEC. At 11 cents per kWh retail cost and 5.5 cents net metering, we would have paid PEC $4,488 if we sourced 100% of our electricity from the grid. Our actual cost of the power we imported from the grid was $1,496 and we received $407 in net metering credit, resulting in a net cost of $1,089. Though $3,399 of annual net savings sounds impressive, it is only a 3.9% cash on cash return on my $88,200 net install cost and only 2.7% return when the total install cost is taken into account (thank you tax payers). In 2023, I earned 5.28% yield on my Vanguard Federal Money Market fund investments, so solar cost me money, but I am rich enough to afford it.
That was interesting, thanks for sharing. One comment I’d like to make is while I don’t know your tax situation, I would bet you paid taxes on your 5.28% money market so your yield after taxes was probably significantly less. But you make a good point about investing in solar which many people don’t consider, which is the opportunity costs of a solar project.
I understand that and expect it. My main motivation for installing solar was to be as off grid and independent as possible. Even though I will probably have to replace the panels and inverters in less than 15 years, I have a decent amount of protection from grid outages for now. Think of it as an expensive insurance policy with a limited term.
In Germany, we have 100 GW of installed solar capacity by the end of 2024. Subsidies for Solar and wind energy are increasing from 11 billions to 20 billions due to progress in solar installation. The government’s goal is to install 215 GW by 2030. Can you imagine how expensive this will be? And the subsidies are not payed for the cost of installation of solar panels, but for generating electricity!
If it needs a subsidy to persuade people to use it it is either more expensive, crap ir both.
Robert, you will get a kick out of this conversation.....
https://www.quora.com/Is-everyone-amused-by-the-epic-failure-of-NOAAs-hurricane-prediction-models-this-year-Six-weeks-of-the-height-of-the-season-and-not-a-single-hurricane/answer/Paul-Noel-5?__filter__=all&__nsrc__=notif_page&__sncid__=56697103185&__snid3__=76191113169
Excellent article, as usual. Furthermore, the geopolitical aspect should be emphasized even more (the subjugation and slave labor exploitation of the Uyghurs is bad enough) as the wily Chinese aim at total domination of the world market for solar panels. This can never be in the interest of any Western country. Ironically, boosted by American tax payers through the RRHI (Reverse Robin Hood Insanity).
If Californians can't generate solar electricity economically...
The cheapest power plant makes and sells power 24/7/365. What solar does is make all power plants into peaker plants, flipping on and off. The cheapest power isn't based on LCOE, it is based on how much you run the plant. Energy sources that make electricity 24/7/365 are cheap. Those that don't are wildly expensive.
Nuclear is expensive if you are stupid enough to use it to load follow, it's cheap as baseload. Using it less costs you more. Imagine a taxi. If I have 10 customers in one day, or just one customer, which can charge LESS for a ride? Obviously, if I'm getting 10 customers, I can make just as much money charging less. Nuclear, gas and coal plants are the same - you need to spread the fixed costs over as many customers as possible.
Base load might cost $30/Mwh. Peaker plants charge $100/MWh to the $1,000s/Mwh. That is what is driving cost - if I say solar is half the cost of natural gas, so what? If I have to pay 4, 8 or 10X to balance and back it up it is going to be very expensive energy.
Free solar will be the most expensive power on Earth.
I will say again, the way forward is Gravity Windmills. We will innovate past traditional nuclear reactors to passive “Cool Nuclear” as these crises worsen. Electromagnetic Gravity Harvesting will certainly be one of the key Harvest class technologies that will emerge and compete for market share. Bridging the consumption gap between the responsible use of fossil fuels and the severe limitations of wind and solar. Search my name on YouTube, Hubert Gillespie. We spent $7k on our short animated video depicting the revolutionary concept. I will say again, “We seek no funding, we are merely the messengers “. Our responsibility is to build public support while working with industry leaders to develop these technologies. Harvest Class Technologies and Modular Grids are the future for the American People and the world at large. The powers that be will no longer sell us electricity, they will sell us the Equipment to harvest our own. hughgillespie@wowway.com
According to a Zillow study, a solar installation can increase a home's resale value by about 4%, or up to $6,000 for each kilowatt of electricity you have installed.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06062024/inside-clean-energy-solar-panel-price-drop/
“For the record, I’m opposed to all energy subsidies unless I’m the one getting them. But I digress.” I had to chuckle at that! Yes, just like those of us who sent back our free Corona checks from the government! Ha! I know you didn’t get solar panels to virtue signal, but so many people believe they are actually effectively reducing their carbon footprint. Never mind the energy used in mining and manufacturing of the panels, but the big kicker is disposal of “retired” panels. 9 out of 10 panels in CA are not recycled (too expensive) and thus pollute the land and watershed.
Should a surcharge be put on the purchase of solar panels until appropriate recycling procedures are achieved? The surcharge should be invested in developing the solar panel recycling methods. Nothing should be landfilled!
Excellent point, much like what many States do with drilling/oil producing companies when a well is permitted-they pay a fee or into a fund for the future cost of capping a non-producing well.
Didn't know that. Thanks. My reference was sort of based on the deposit on soda bottles before they became plastic, or disposable...yes, I'm old...ish.
There are purported recycling methods for solar panels that can recover metals and Silicon. Not sure of the sustainability/profitability, but deficiencies should be covered by the fund. Need to keep as much out of landfills as possible without that material becoming "construction fill".
The cost of solar and wind goes up per kWh, the more you have of it- although admittedly the threshold on wind is significantly higher than that of solar.
Your quip about being against any subsidy of which your are not a beneficiary reminds me somewhat of an old Rupert Murdoch quote, from around the time Tim Berners-Lee was ruminating about inventing something for everyone...
"I'm against every monopoly other than my own." - Rupert Murdoch.
My takeaways are, zero cost inputs and subsidies are compelling enough for the author to buy it. That comment favorably changed the tone of piece, I think. Concise, well sourced, good writing. A pleasure to read!
I put in solar 14 years ago. Few people mention that solar degrades over time. I am producing less than half of what I used to produce.
That’s changed , now solar panels last 30 years not 25. Just about all of them are guaranteed to be putting out 85% of their power at 25 years old . Many now are bifacial meaning they get sunlight from both sides ,like off snow .
Most now are getting over 22% power from the sun . Not 19% anymore. With even more to come in the near future at 24% .
They now take up less space with more power because of what I just posted .
And recycling them have now become much cheaper and easier then just two years ago .
And the average home with solar now sells for 20-30 thousand more . There by making back for those that bought them the less then 20 thousand they paid to get them in the first place.
And now we have “solar farms” . That take care of maintenance , insurance , and other services .
With low costs to invest in ,and most of the paperwork is done by companies that sell shares of the farm.
Mr. Ende, so true. Took a solar energy class in ‘85 from a guy who had been involved with solar for over a decade then. Yes, efficiency has increased today, but not to the extent that makes it “a miracle”. Degradation is real but never talked about.
Well, all here seem to be in agreement on this, and I hate to utter a discouraging word ... but I'm not sure the hypercomplicated legal environment of California is the place to go looking for indicative price figures.
You might do better looking at Australia, where it's one national government, and one island continent that can't buy or sell power outside, to provide a clearer view. Australia has gone heavily into solar in particular. Quick googles to the usual places you find stats gave me power prices:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1377255/australia-electricity-price-index/
...which nearly doubled from 2005-2013, before any significant solar in the mix. That was the price of natural gas, of course, which then dropped in 2014. Prices went down steadily from 2018 to 2022 in spite of solar rising rapidly in those years.
https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/electricity-generation
The price of gas generation went up in 2022 with the explosion of gas price with Putin's invasion, of course, but recent articles indicate that prices came back down as gas moderated:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-24/energy-bills-still-rising-despite-falling-wholesale-prices/103741682
...and the above article contains this paragraph:
"The report by the council found that in Queensland, rooftop solar and large-scale renewable projects brought down average wholesale power prices by $117 per megawatt hour in 2023."
Other comments on the Australian power mix - when went from 20% renewable to 40% renewable the last few years, a breakneck conversion speed - indicate it has a moderating effect on prices. The sun may be unpredictable hour to hour, but it is predictable year to year. Gas is just not.
Solar and gas are very hard to compare: the former is all upfront capital, the later is mostly ongoing fuel costs, they're such opposites. And the that "upfront capital" cost goes way up when the interest rate does, which it has for two years. That should really be factored into any analysis.
Trust me, solar is not cheap. I too live in the Austin area (in the Pedernales Electric Coop territory) and have 61 360 watt solar panels and 3 Tesla PowerWalls on my home. Total install cost was $126,000 ($88,200 after 30% tax credit). In 2023, the first full year after installation, my system generated 35.7Mwh of power (19% capacity factor in sunny central Texas with a near perfect south slight west facing exposure). The batteries were good for 10.1MWh of charge and 9.0MWh of discharge with 1MWh of losses. Our total home usage for the year was 40.8MWh. We relied on grid imports from PEC for 13.6MWh and exported 7.4MWh to PEC. At 11 cents per kWh retail cost and 5.5 cents net metering, we would have paid PEC $4,488 if we sourced 100% of our electricity from the grid. Our actual cost of the power we imported from the grid was $1,496 and we received $407 in net metering credit, resulting in a net cost of $1,089. Though $3,399 of annual net savings sounds impressive, it is only a 3.9% cash on cash return on my $88,200 net install cost and only 2.7% return when the total install cost is taken into account (thank you tax payers). In 2023, I earned 5.28% yield on my Vanguard Federal Money Market fund investments, so solar cost me money, but I am rich enough to afford it.
That was interesting, thanks for sharing. One comment I’d like to make is while I don’t know your tax situation, I would bet you paid taxes on your 5.28% money market so your yield after taxes was probably significantly less. But you make a good point about investing in solar which many people don’t consider, which is the opportunity costs of a solar project.
Wait until your panels degrade and lose efficiency. Your return will only go lower.
I understand that and expect it. My main motivation for installing solar was to be as off grid and independent as possible. Even though I will probably have to replace the panels and inverters in less than 15 years, I have a decent amount of protection from grid outages for now. Think of it as an expensive insurance policy with a limited term.
A natural gas powered generator would serve the same purpose, for a much lower cost!
Another one that does not understand environmental economics because they think solar energy will r place base load energy
In Germany, we have 100 GW of installed solar capacity by the end of 2024. Subsidies for Solar and wind energy are increasing from 11 billions to 20 billions due to progress in solar installation. The government’s goal is to install 215 GW by 2030. Can you imagine how expensive this will be? And the subsidies are not payed for the cost of installation of solar panels, but for generating electricity!