Industrial electricity use in the EU is collapsing. US policymakers "Have no excuse for not looking at Europe and learning." Plus: screenings in Dallas, Tulsa, Fairfax, & Austin.
EIA discussing EU electricity, permanent demand destruction and this is before Chinese electric cars destroy Germany's car industry...
Following a 3.1% drop in 2022, the 3.2% year-on-year decline in EU demand in 2023 meant that it dropped to levels last seen two decades ago. As in 2022, weaker consumption in the industrial sector was the main factor that reduced electricity demand, as energy prices came down but remained above prepandemic levels.
In 2023, there were also signs of some permanent demand destruction, especially in the energy-intensive chemical and primary metal production sectors. These segments will remain vulnerable to energy price shocks over our outlook period.
If I were asked whether I would prefer to live in a country with heavy industry (these days) or perhaps not, my answer is rather not. The massive investment, the heavy reliance on high technology at a time when there is such a severe shortage of skilled labour. Hard to say whose strategy will win in the end. I have two engineering degrees and understand the technology for the most part
Well, this is akin what has happen to the United States. Many if not all of our heavy industry left our shore in drovers began in 70s. The only heavy industry left in is oil refinery & this is only because the grandfather clause as our refineries or over 50 years old. A lot of EU industries are under some protectionism scheme which is why they were still in the EU-not to say we don't have this in America, because we do. The EU and America both share a lot of structure disadvantages: high labor cost, demographics, high taxes, excess regulation, inflation, & debt! The MAIN difference between the two is America vast natural resources-specifically oil & gas while The EU has none-aside Norway, Russia, Netherlands, & the U.K. Now given the shut down of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands, the "sanctions" on Russia & declining fields in U.K. Norths Sea compared to the United States swimming-pun intended-in oil & natural gas-we are the largest producer and have some of the largest reverse.
So what separates us is energy. The U.S. has access to low cost energy vs The Eu which does not & has to import the majority of their primary use energy. The EU has no way of meeting it's In 2022, approximately 18.7 million barrels of oil daily domestically. Which by all measure America is able to given us an advantage that most countries and not compete with. Which is way manufacture-and the economy in general-in America is stable and growing-war time dividend-& heavy industry in The EU is now leaving, because energy is to expensive & easily influence by to many factors forcing prices higher for everyone.
Robert, Good article and addressing the canary in the coal mine for the US.
I would also like to have you take note of the Opinion in the 2-13-24 WSJ, "Climateers Neuter an Energy Watchdog". The IEA is now an advocacy organization under Fatah Birol and needs to have their new and misunderstood role exposed to the wider public. Hopefully you help in this need.
This article is just an excuse to bash renewables and say "told you so" as a shill for the fossils. It's hard to believe people still aren't waking up to the destruction wrought by the petro-industrial complex.
What is shown here is a set of correlations and no thoughtful explanations of causes and effects, multiple degrees of freedom involved, the role of policy, and the role of the petro complex itself. It also assumes that everyone is better off with continued industrial expansion - it unquestioningly asserts that if "industrialization" (are the metrics used the optimal or most desirable?) is "decreasing" then That Is Bad For The World.
Show me peer-reviewed models that discuss the issue in an intelligent way. Think deeper than a few years' worth of aluminum and steel production numbers.
This is a major geopolitical risk that most policymakers are sleeping on. All the signs of deindustrialization are right in front of our faces. And the new industries Europe hopes to create...are already dominated by China! You can't make this up. The level of stupidity, arrogance, and utter incompetence by Western elites is breathtaking. Two things will happen: 1) voters will wake up and vote for new leaders who will right the ship before its too late; or 2) it will end disastrously for the West and hopefully it can be rebuilt stronger. This path we have taken to date is so unnecessary.
What needs to be is less fossil fuels and more green industries!
Thank you Robert. You do an outstanding job of capturing facts and presenting them in short concise articles. Energy and Economic prosperity go together. Here are some thoughts I posted on my blog last year on China and U.S. energy policy Comparisons of Energy use: http://dickstormprobizblog.org/2023/01/18/comparison-of-china-energy-electricity-generation-with-u-s-a/
EIA discussing EU electricity, permanent demand destruction and this is before Chinese electric cars destroy Germany's car industry...
Following a 3.1% drop in 2022, the 3.2% year-on-year decline in EU demand in 2023 meant that it dropped to levels last seen two decades ago. As in 2022, weaker consumption in the industrial sector was the main factor that reduced electricity demand, as energy prices came down but remained above prepandemic levels.
In 2023, there were also signs of some permanent demand destruction, especially in the energy-intensive chemical and primary metal production sectors. These segments will remain vulnerable to energy price shocks over our outlook period.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-climate/2024/02/21/california-dreams-of-cheap-renewables-regular-folks-dont-00142562?nname=california-climate&nid=00000189-315c-d8dd-a1ed-797dc9f10000&nrid=0000014e-f0ef-dd93-ad7f-f8ef32cb0001&nlid=2745178
Finally, good news!
If I were asked whether I would prefer to live in a country with heavy industry (these days) or perhaps not, my answer is rather not. The massive investment, the heavy reliance on high technology at a time when there is such a severe shortage of skilled labour. Hard to say whose strategy will win in the end. I have two engineering degrees and understand the technology for the most part
Well, this is akin what has happen to the United States. Many if not all of our heavy industry left our shore in drovers began in 70s. The only heavy industry left in is oil refinery & this is only because the grandfather clause as our refineries or over 50 years old. A lot of EU industries are under some protectionism scheme which is why they were still in the EU-not to say we don't have this in America, because we do. The EU and America both share a lot of structure disadvantages: high labor cost, demographics, high taxes, excess regulation, inflation, & debt! The MAIN difference between the two is America vast natural resources-specifically oil & gas while The EU has none-aside Norway, Russia, Netherlands, & the U.K. Now given the shut down of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands, the "sanctions" on Russia & declining fields in U.K. Norths Sea compared to the United States swimming-pun intended-in oil & natural gas-we are the largest producer and have some of the largest reverse.
So what separates us is energy. The U.S. has access to low cost energy vs The Eu which does not & has to import the majority of their primary use energy. The EU has no way of meeting it's In 2022, approximately 18.7 million barrels of oil daily domestically. Which by all measure America is able to given us an advantage that most countries and not compete with. Which is way manufacture-and the economy in general-in America is stable and growing-war time dividend-& heavy industry in The EU is now leaving, because energy is to expensive & easily influence by to many factors forcing prices higher for everyone.
Hard to like this post as the subject matter is pretty damn grim. I really hope the can see that things need to turn around…
Robert, Good article and addressing the canary in the coal mine for the US.
I would also like to have you take note of the Opinion in the 2-13-24 WSJ, "Climateers Neuter an Energy Watchdog". The IEA is now an advocacy organization under Fatah Birol and needs to have their new and misunderstood role exposed to the wider public. Hopefully you help in this need.
Tata Steel are closing the blast furnaces yes, but they are building an EAF in its place.
Any chance the keynote speech on Feb 26th will be recorded??
Where are all those newly arrived cultural enhancers going to find a job?
Companies in the US ought to try to figure out joint partnerships with EU companies and import them to the US, lock, stock & barrel.
This article is just an excuse to bash renewables and say "told you so" as a shill for the fossils. It's hard to believe people still aren't waking up to the destruction wrought by the petro-industrial complex.
What is shown here is a set of correlations and no thoughtful explanations of causes and effects, multiple degrees of freedom involved, the role of policy, and the role of the petro complex itself. It also assumes that everyone is better off with continued industrial expansion - it unquestioningly asserts that if "industrialization" (are the metrics used the optimal or most desirable?) is "decreasing" then That Is Bad For The World.
Show me peer-reviewed models that discuss the issue in an intelligent way. Think deeper than a few years' worth of aluminum and steel production numbers.
"Strategic mistake" of relying on Russian gas?
Oh, did the Russians suddenly turn off the gas? Suddenly jack up the price? No?
What's that - they blew up their own pipeline? So devious, those Russians.
Of course, Sy Hersch says we did it, but what does he know.
Of course, if he's right, then the real strategic mistake Germany made was getting too cozy with the US.
What's that saying...to be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend and ally can be fatal
This is a major geopolitical risk that most policymakers are sleeping on. All the signs of deindustrialization are right in front of our faces. And the new industries Europe hopes to create...are already dominated by China! You can't make this up. The level of stupidity, arrogance, and utter incompetence by Western elites is breathtaking. Two things will happen: 1) voters will wake up and vote for new leaders who will right the ship before its too late; or 2) it will end disastrously for the West and hopefully it can be rebuilt stronger. This path we have taken to date is so unnecessary.