21 Comments

So at the 50,000 foot level, you have a group of political figures who are actively working to make their constituents poorer by markedly increasing the cost of needed services (while denying it, of course). What is their motivation for doing so?

Answer that question and I think it may give broader insight into a lot of political issues.

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They are obviously kicking the can down the road past Election Day. I have a heat pump in my home, though not my choice. When I was paying 7 cents a kilowatt hour, I was in the money. At 14 cents now, not so much.

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Couterfactual... if residential power prices were falling dramatically the news would be made ASAP with elaborate press briefings from Granholm to cheer about the success of their climate pork spending.

If we had anything but a stenographer media, then Energy Jenny wouldn't be able to do an interview without explaining where this report was at and what it said.

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Thank you Robert - it's good to know about your experience with the stone wall (my Dad used to talk about trying to chisel rock with a banana).

There is a famous pair of images from a busy street in, I think, New York. In the first, the street was thronged with horse-drawn carriages. In the second, just a few years later, the horses had almost if not entirely gone, and we saw motor vehicles. Was this the result of the government mandating the phasing-out of the horse and replacement by internal combustion engine vehicles, or was it because folk found the latter cheaper and/or more convenient?

I believe a lot of the deception of the public that is going on (perhaps especially so here in the UK too), begins as well-meaning self-deception. This is much more insidious than plain lies since the liar at least knows what the truth is.

Some time ago I quoted Otto von Bismarck to my fellow Doomberg subscribers; "People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war, or before an election".

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Nice piece Robert. It was apparent from the start that the useful idiots saying heat pumps were cheaper than gas furnace were just plain lying. These bozos will say and do anything to get their way. If we have Biden 2.0 for 8 more years I believe the damage will be insurmountable

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Ask an HVAC contractor what type of heating system they recommend, for performance as well as operating cost. The answer will not be an electric heat pump.

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Robert

I’ll write a letter to my congressman and two senators to see if we can jar loose the DOE numbers.

Thanks for your efforts.

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It might be a good idea to include the 2023 numbers in the letter and point out that if the 2024 numbers are substantially different, then pointed questions should be asked.

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Looking forward to see what you have in store for the comments section. Limiting comments to paid subscribers is a good start but I hope you intend to participate as well.

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author

Yes. That was one of the main reasons for going paid. Tnx.

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And all of this for a very small reduction in US CO2 emission levels which will have an immeasurably small impact on global warming if any. If CO2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels is a problem, nothing whatsoever can be done about it without the cooperation of China and India. This is one of Biden's programs which is simply not working and because of that, VP Harris' prescription would be to cancel it. No?

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The price relationship of gas and electricity matters a lot with respect to the future vision of electrify everything. For example, heat pumps consume about 1/3 the energy of a furnace. That’s a good thing, but as this article points out, electricity is 3 times more expensive than gas. So, from a cost point of view, running a heat pump vs a furnace is about the same. But when the price of electricity begins to climb because of intermittent energy (overbuilding, batteries, transmission, etc.), heat pumps become a much more expensive form of heating. The same argument can be applied to EVs. They are cheaper to operate as long as electricity prices remain low. In fact at some high speed charging stations EVs are now more expensive to operate than ICE vehicles.

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author

That's a critical point. Heat pumps may be more efficient, at certain temperatures than gas furnaces. But it's well understood that their efficiency plummets in very low temperatures, which then requires resistance heating, which puts yet more demand on the grid. Further, the electric grid is already cracking under existing demand. Upgrading it to accommodate all the new demand from EVs, electric heating, water heaters, and things like AI, will cost a staggering amount of money, all of which will have to be absorbed by ratepayers. My next article will like be on how inflation is affecting the grid buildout.

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The infamous "new version". Aka, lying, manipulating and obfuscating.

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For a building to have no burning of hydrocarbons it would have to contain no humans. And to fully avoid GHG emissions would require prevention of farts and burps. What a quest!

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I'm the author of the book, Electrifying our World, which assumes we FIRST provide the world with ample, 24x7 electricity from NUCLEAR POWER at 3¢/kWh. I've posted the presentation slides used in my Dartmouth Osher courses at ElectrifyingOurWorld.com. I did another book, New Nuclear is HOT! and posted the slides at the same site. Book is at https://www.amazon.com/New-Nuclear-HOT-Robert-Hargraves/dp/B0CWZTXXVV/ref=sr_1_1 .

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You are too modest. You also did an outstanding book on thorium! I have not yet read the others, but they are on my list.

Thorium is an underappreciated energy source. Why? It is more ubiquitous than uranium, and safer.

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Thanks Robert! I’ve seen your slides before somewhere but didn’t know you also had a book!

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Why are they stonewalling? Because the numbers don’t lie. The fantasy of “electrifying everything” is not only absurdly unrealistic, it’s outrageously expensive.

Importantly, you note that “Eight major green building certification programs have agreed to embed or align or exceed the zero emissions definition within their certification programs.” Not only does this mean higher energy costs but it means higher and higher building costs. So, when Walz tells Vance that the federal government can’t help bring down the cost of building he either knowingly lied or is clueless.

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Up until at least 2010 the EIA published a table showing the subsidides per MWHr equivalent for all energy sources. After Obama got into office, they stopped, at least for a while. I'm not sure if they've since published that table again.

At the time it showed fossil fuels at about $.60/MWHr, Nuclear at $2/MWHr and wind and solar at something like $30 - $50 and $50 - $90 respectively.

And the nuclear number was bogus. The nice thing about the EIA is they include their methodology and some of the DOE expenses they attributed to commercial nuclear electricity generation were actually expenses in support of bomb infrastructure. So that $2 should be lower.

Anyway, in general, the EIA is pretty resilient to political pressure, so far, but that table got cut.

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Most likely clueless!

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