Robert, I'm slightly disappointed that you didn't include Australia in Chart 1. In 2022, according to that same Statistical Review of World Energy report, Australia produced 5.5 exajoules - more than Norway or Saudi Arabia.
I mention this as Australia was the 2nd biggest exporter of LNG in 2023. Yet the US EIA forecasts it to be a first time importer towards the end of 2024 and the Australian Energy Regulator often forecasts domestic shortfalls during certain periods in the next few years!
No surprise, as NG is the energy bridge for the next 40 yrs. We learned the Enviro groups pushing back on NG are in fact not Enviro at all, and funding is coming from Russia (keeps their NG price up) and China ( photovoltaic producers). We have tracked the money.
Natty IS our best source of abundant inexpensive energy. But we're working as hard as we can to export that advantage away. It's not cheap in limitless quantities forever. Oil prices are way up yet rig counts are declining by the week. 1st year depletion in new wells is 70% now. We need to be putting rigs to work to hold production flat this year, much less grow it.
As usual a great article. Unfortunately policy is being directed by bureaucrats who have no experience in the fields of energy, transportation, or utilities. Look at the board members who make up the California Air Resources Board. Hard to find one that has had an actual real job. Keep up the good work as you reaching more and more people.
You omitted a chart or charts depicting U.S. total reserves of recoverable natural gas. Without that information, everything else you've provided here is less useful.
Great piece Robert, very well researched. Part of the reason Ohio is attracting tech manufacturing is its easy access to the Marcellus-Utica shale gas field. Both Intel and the EV battery manufacturers have tapped the supply. Personally my home is as natural gas I can get it, which saves me significant money every year.
Just imagine how low energy prices would be if Joe "the super greenie" Biden and his bevy of administrative loons would accept this reality.
I just read that since January 2021 under Biden, energy prices, particularly electricity, have climbed 30%, rising 13 times faster than the previous seven years.
Most people conflate the fact the most things are made directly-as a base or foundational element with natural gas or indirectly-input for petrochemical & electrical. Renewable energy (wind & solar) would not be even possible without the flexibility of natural gas. Both Texas and Germany have and had respectfully centered their renewable buildout of low natural gas. The difference in success-although I would caution that word when speaking about renewables-is that Texas is awash in natural gas-so much so it turns negative at times-and Germany imported it. That should speak for itself.
LOVE it that you use energy units to describe, well, energy! Exajoules. The graphs provide excellent visuals for what is happening WRT energy production and transfer - to EU.
The US may be the largest NG producer in the World but it is also the largest consumer with about the lowest Reserves of any large producer at 14yrs production. Russia at 77yrs, Iran & Qatar at 143yrs.
The gas supply should be focused on process & building heat, polymers and fertilizer production. Not electricity production. The US is being setup for a big energy crisis, the PTB are just lovin' it. George Soros just wishes he will be here to see the shit hit the fan. No more reliable coal. Not building NPPs due to the 100% corrupt NRC. Just unreliable, expensive, intermittent, seasonal wind and solar, which can have serious yr-yr variations. And gas providing both heat & power. A double whammy when the 2nd US gas crunch occurs, much worse than the one in the 1970's.
Shale Gas fields have a rapid depletion rate. There are experts in the field who believe the US is already at Peak NG. Listen to two of the best Energy Analysts Goehring & Rozencwajg (they aren't Doomers, Greenies or Malthusian scam artists ):
"Today we deep dive fracking and shale, the energy source that put Peak Oil concerns on the back burner for a decade and a half. According to recent analysis by Goehring and Rozencwajg Shale field production is showing signs of sliding down the backside of Hubbert’s curve. What are the geopolitical and economic ramifications? Are there more shale booms on the horizon overseas? What are the implications for nuclear which has been sidelined in deregulated markets by cheap abundant gas? Leigh Goehring joins me for a detailed discussion"
The End of Abundant Energy: Shale Production and Hubbert's Peak:
What I had hoped for, in reading these 29 comments, was some form of intellectual debate or conversation about the INVESTING IMPLICATIONS of what Robert discusses in this article. Unless I missed something, there has so far been no such conversation. So [ hopefully ] let me start one. WHAT and WHERE are the Nat gas companies worth investing in? In Goehring and Rozencwaig's 4th quarter 2023 report [published] 23 Feb 2024 ] there is an entire section starting on page 10 titled "Is Gas the new Uranium?" So, I ask again, investing in what companies and why invest in them is the best way to play the coming boom in Nat Gas? If all I get back are the sounds of not even crickets in the night, then for sure I'll know I'll be onto something!! Let the investing into Nat Gas discussion begin!!! I hope . . . .
Very good essay, sir. Thank you. I have two questions, preferably for Democrats or for those who support idea of "net-zero."
1. Referencing Chart 7: If residential use of natural gas has been essentially "flat" for the past 50 years, why do you feel compelled to initiate programs that would eliminate residential gas use? According to the EPA. only 13 percent of emissions come from residential and commercial use. How will "eliminating" only 13 percent of the emissions make a serious dent in global temperatures? Biden's and California's programs that eliminate gas stoves and gas furnaces seem to be programs searching for fly shit in the pepper.
2. Referencing Chart 8: This chart tells an incomplete story. It would be more effective had it shown the capacity factors for energy sources in areas affected by the winter storm. My question is simple: why do you insist we rely on energy sources that are totally dependent on weather to produce electricity?
How does the Climatist's Handbook suggest you answer these questions? I really am curious.
Robert, I'm slightly disappointed that you didn't include Australia in Chart 1. In 2022, according to that same Statistical Review of World Energy report, Australia produced 5.5 exajoules - more than Norway or Saudi Arabia.
I mention this as Australia was the 2nd biggest exporter of LNG in 2023. Yet the US EIA forecasts it to be a first time importer towards the end of 2024 and the Australian Energy Regulator often forecasts domestic shortfalls during certain periods in the next few years!
No surprise, as NG is the energy bridge for the next 40 yrs. We learned the Enviro groups pushing back on NG are in fact not Enviro at all, and funding is coming from Russia (keeps their NG price up) and China ( photovoltaic producers). We have tracked the money.
Natty IS our best source of abundant inexpensive energy. But we're working as hard as we can to export that advantage away. It's not cheap in limitless quantities forever. Oil prices are way up yet rig counts are declining by the week. 1st year depletion in new wells is 70% now. We need to be putting rigs to work to hold production flat this year, much less grow it.
Thanks for writing! I appreciate this comment as it is mostly new information to me. I'll dig deeper.
As usual a great article. Unfortunately policy is being directed by bureaucrats who have no experience in the fields of energy, transportation, or utilities. Look at the board members who make up the California Air Resources Board. Hard to find one that has had an actual real job. Keep up the good work as you reaching more and more people.
You omitted a chart or charts depicting U.S. total reserves of recoverable natural gas. Without that information, everything else you've provided here is less useful.
No thourogh environmental/social assessment would agree. Maybe if we started this 50byears ago, it might be the case. Suck it up.
Great piece Robert, very well researched. Part of the reason Ohio is attracting tech manufacturing is its easy access to the Marcellus-Utica shale gas field. Both Intel and the EV battery manufacturers have tapped the supply. Personally my home is as natural gas I can get it, which saves me significant money every year.
Just imagine how low energy prices would be if Joe "the super greenie" Biden and his bevy of administrative loons would accept this reality.
I just read that since January 2021 under Biden, energy prices, particularly electricity, have climbed 30%, rising 13 times faster than the previous seven years.
Most people conflate the fact the most things are made directly-as a base or foundational element with natural gas or indirectly-input for petrochemical & electrical. Renewable energy (wind & solar) would not be even possible without the flexibility of natural gas. Both Texas and Germany have and had respectfully centered their renewable buildout of low natural gas. The difference in success-although I would caution that word when speaking about renewables-is that Texas is awash in natural gas-so much so it turns negative at times-and Germany imported it. That should speak for itself.
LOVE it that you use energy units to describe, well, energy! Exajoules. The graphs provide excellent visuals for what is happening WRT energy production and transfer - to EU.
Outstanding, Robert!
Two items struck us:
a) #6 - that wind produced 9 LESS Twh's in 2023 vs. 2022 (despite the subsidies and GWs of new capacity installed)
b) #7 - that residential natty use is pretty much flat for 50 yrs.
Great research!
The US may be the largest NG producer in the World but it is also the largest consumer with about the lowest Reserves of any large producer at 14yrs production. Russia at 77yrs, Iran & Qatar at 143yrs.
The gas supply should be focused on process & building heat, polymers and fertilizer production. Not electricity production. The US is being setup for a big energy crisis, the PTB are just lovin' it. George Soros just wishes he will be here to see the shit hit the fan. No more reliable coal. Not building NPPs due to the 100% corrupt NRC. Just unreliable, expensive, intermittent, seasonal wind and solar, which can have serious yr-yr variations. And gas providing both heat & power. A double whammy when the 2nd US gas crunch occurs, much worse than the one in the 1970's.
Shale Gas fields have a rapid depletion rate. There are experts in the field who believe the US is already at Peak NG. Listen to two of the best Energy Analysts Goehring & Rozencwajg (they aren't Doomers, Greenies or Malthusian scam artists ):
Have We Reached Peak Shale?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzWGnbI9nw
"Today we deep dive fracking and shale, the energy source that put Peak Oil concerns on the back burner for a decade and a half. According to recent analysis by Goehring and Rozencwajg Shale field production is showing signs of sliding down the backside of Hubbert’s curve. What are the geopolitical and economic ramifications? Are there more shale booms on the horizon overseas? What are the implications for nuclear which has been sidelined in deregulated markets by cheap abundant gas? Leigh Goehring joins me for a detailed discussion"
The End of Abundant Energy: Shale Production and Hubbert's Peak:
https://info.gorozen.com/2022-q4-commentary-peak-oil
Been reading that US is awash with so much gas they are changing engines in heavier equipment to run on natural gas
What I had hoped for, in reading these 29 comments, was some form of intellectual debate or conversation about the INVESTING IMPLICATIONS of what Robert discusses in this article. Unless I missed something, there has so far been no such conversation. So [ hopefully ] let me start one. WHAT and WHERE are the Nat gas companies worth investing in? In Goehring and Rozencwaig's 4th quarter 2023 report [published] 23 Feb 2024 ] there is an entire section starting on page 10 titled "Is Gas the new Uranium?" So, I ask again, investing in what companies and why invest in them is the best way to play the coming boom in Nat Gas? If all I get back are the sounds of not even crickets in the night, then for sure I'll know I'll be onto something!! Let the investing into Nat Gas discussion begin!!! I hope . . . .
Very good essay, sir. Thank you. I have two questions, preferably for Democrats or for those who support idea of "net-zero."
1. Referencing Chart 7: If residential use of natural gas has been essentially "flat" for the past 50 years, why do you feel compelled to initiate programs that would eliminate residential gas use? According to the EPA. only 13 percent of emissions come from residential and commercial use. How will "eliminating" only 13 percent of the emissions make a serious dent in global temperatures? Biden's and California's programs that eliminate gas stoves and gas furnaces seem to be programs searching for fly shit in the pepper.
2. Referencing Chart 8: This chart tells an incomplete story. It would be more effective had it shown the capacity factors for energy sources in areas affected by the winter storm. My question is simple: why do you insist we rely on energy sources that are totally dependent on weather to produce electricity?
How does the Climatist's Handbook suggest you answer these questions? I really am curious.