The “energy transition” depends on massive expansions of our high-voltage transmission grid. But capacity additions are falling, and per-mile costs and utility product costs are soaring.
GHE/CAGW BIG LIE depends on 2 erroneous assumptions:
1. Near Earth space is cold & w/o GHE Earth becomes 33 C colder, 255 K, ball of ice.
2. Earth’s surface radiates “extra” LWIR energy as a near BB.
Both wrong!
Actually, remove Earth’s atmosphere or even just GHGs and Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At our distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
According to the K-T GHE atmospheric power flux budget graphic, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must loop an “extra” 396 calculated BB/333 “back”/63 duplicate net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a Black Body.
These ubiquitous GHE balance/budget graphics contain egregious arithmetic (bad) and thermodynamic (badder) errors.
Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a black body (396@16 C) and as demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
Thanks Robert. You do a great job and an important one, because you are reaching the general public aka voters. Another concern of mine is national security. The GRID if all connected then can be more easily to collapse. Whether by Cyberattack or malicious mechanical harm such as the transform sabotaging done in California and NC in recent years. A further concern is that neighboring Utilities do not plan for reserve generation as in the past with Regional Utilities did. So, when extreme weather comes, then there is no power to share anyway, because there are insufficient reserves. The RTO model is flawed in many ways, including the forcing of renewables and reduced capacity factors to uneconomic levels of Dispatchable generation. Keep up your excellent work.
Lots of talk everywhere of how we have to solve supply chain cost inflation in order to enable various “net zero” deadlines when in reality it is these net zero policies that are CAUSING supply chain cost inflation. Which means they are only going to worsen.
If all western countries are pursuing “electrification”, I recall there is an effect that happens when everybody is chasing ever more scarce resources.
It is interesting social justice reviews do not seem to apply to native Americans for renewable and transmission projects. Many of these projects also will be in tornado areas in the Midwest. Excess power works if one area is having mild weather while a connected area is in need. More extreme weather is impacting a wider area so these assumptions need to be considered.
As always another must read by Mr. Bryce about the fallacy of the “energy transition,” which has been brought to us largely by people who have no idea what they’re talking about, who ignore the real life practicalities of such a transition, and who want to spend enormous amounts of your money so they can control everything, all while demonstrating their hatred for the successes of western civilization.
This article and the comments made so far are indicative of how far the US is from solving its energy challenges. Our current hodge pod of systems was built independently over a 150 year period by “local” interests and is failing rapidly. Wind, solar, coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear power systems and their related independent distribution networks have so many perspectives and inefficiencies (pork barrel, sanctioned private greed, time, age, perceptions and misperceptions, resource availability and allocations, legal wrangling, “rules”, etc.) that it will be virtually impossible to “fix” anything in any rational time frame.
This is as much a national security issue as it is a basic societal need issue at the individual level. Several times we have been faced with common requirements for our future and overcome the obstacles as the time. Railroads were one and Kennedy’s “moon programs” were another. There are others.
Why not do something similar for our electric grids and power systems, together with imposing a trust fund systemic maintenance and clean up “tax” on the system usage to pay those costs when they arise (similar to the nuclear programs).
We have the intellectual capacity as a nation to accomplish this, but is our political capacity up to the task? Greed and self interest by one political camp seems hell bent on instigating a new civil war over imposing their theocratic beliefs on the nation, and their fear that immigrants may be smarter and more capable than they are.
Once this Fusion becomes close to reality, I suspect that the Oil companies will fight to delay said development. You can't stop technology forever. So maybe the next generation will embrace and implement. Maybe in 40 years small fusion plants everywhere and shrunk to a very reasonable size. The Fusion Gun of continuous plasma stream can 1. create electricity without moving parts as electrons will fly off the plasma stream 2. radioactive materials can be made non-reactive 3. mining ores that are too depleted can continue to extract metals 4. carbon will be added in a process to make universal synthetic fuel that will run everything that runs on liquid fuel now and be superior 5. heat will boil sea water to make fresh water 6. sadly, this will be a fusion weapon also 7. small units can be used for rocket propulsion 8. The possibilities are endless and will transform societies and not without some turmoil. Were talking a plasma stream of several billion degrees.
Blade waste is another big problem because it is utterly impossible to recycle them. In "Wind Turbine Blade Waste in 2020" which appeared in Waste Management 62 (April 2017), Pu Liu and Claire Y. Barlow estimated that there will be 43 million tonnes of wind turbine blade waste worldwide by 2050. It will be necessary to dispose of 720,000 tonnes per year in the United States alone.
"Green" and "sustainable" are poisoning the Earth and destroying the lives of vulnerable populations. Michael Shellenberger asked "Must we destroy the environment to save the planet?"
It all will not matter because we will have Fusion Power and unlimited pure energy virtually free. So wait about 30 years and all this green energy investments will go to waste. Therefore drill all the oil you can as we LOL still have 300+ years of oil. With his Fusion Power you can create electricity and also turn carbon into Synthetic Liquid Fuel. Bye bye all the oil drillers. Think of the real energy revolution. Climate Change is a scam for corruption. Climate is something we cannot change just adapt.
In December 2022, after more than a decade of effort and frustration, scientists at the US National Ignition Facility (NIF) announced that they had set a world record by producing a fusion reaction that released more energy than it consumed.
My default assumption on all matters of electricity is that the dumbest electrician you can hire is smarter than a solid majority of politicians making energy & climate policy, and 90 percent of journalists covering same for major regime media firms. I have never encountered any evidence to challenge this.
The UAE built new nuclear on time and budget (and they were complete newbs to the industry) so it is possible. Standardize a large and small design and 'get-it-done.' No country needs an energy-transitioned-parallel-grid of parasitical solar and wind with ALL downside.
Believe=religion
Think=opinion
Know=science
What I know.
You know diff?
GHE/CAGW BIG LIE depends on 2 erroneous assumptions:
1. Near Earth space is cold & w/o GHE Earth becomes 33 C colder, 255 K, ball of ice.
2. Earth’s surface radiates “extra” LWIR energy as a near BB.
Both wrong!
Actually, remove Earth’s atmosphere or even just GHGs and Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At our distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
According to the K-T GHE atmospheric power flux budget graphic, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must loop an “extra” 396 calculated BB/333 “back”/63 duplicate net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a Black Body.
These ubiquitous GHE balance/budget graphics contain egregious arithmetic (bad) and thermodynamic (badder) errors.
https://youtu.be/KZnMXNxux8s
Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a black body (396@16 C) and as demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
For the experimental write up see:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
In short, the GHE is as bogus as caloric and phlogiston, a handwavium explanation for a global heating process that does not exist.
Thanks Robert. You do a great job and an important one, because you are reaching the general public aka voters. Another concern of mine is national security. The GRID if all connected then can be more easily to collapse. Whether by Cyberattack or malicious mechanical harm such as the transform sabotaging done in California and NC in recent years. A further concern is that neighboring Utilities do not plan for reserve generation as in the past with Regional Utilities did. So, when extreme weather comes, then there is no power to share anyway, because there are insufficient reserves. The RTO model is flawed in many ways, including the forcing of renewables and reduced capacity factors to uneconomic levels of Dispatchable generation. Keep up your excellent work.
Excellent article.
Lots of talk everywhere of how we have to solve supply chain cost inflation in order to enable various “net zero” deadlines when in reality it is these net zero policies that are CAUSING supply chain cost inflation. Which means they are only going to worsen.
If all western countries are pursuing “electrification”, I recall there is an effect that happens when everybody is chasing ever more scarce resources.
If only we had a term for that?
It is interesting social justice reviews do not seem to apply to native Americans for renewable and transmission projects. Many of these projects also will be in tornado areas in the Midwest. Excess power works if one area is having mild weather while a connected area is in need. More extreme weather is impacting a wider area so these assumptions need to be considered.
What does this mean in terms of LCOE for wind/solar (if we account for the capital investment in transmission expansion) vs LCOE for nuclear?
As always another must read by Mr. Bryce about the fallacy of the “energy transition,” which has been brought to us largely by people who have no idea what they’re talking about, who ignore the real life practicalities of such a transition, and who want to spend enormous amounts of your money so they can control everything, all while demonstrating their hatred for the successes of western civilization.
This article and the comments made so far are indicative of how far the US is from solving its energy challenges. Our current hodge pod of systems was built independently over a 150 year period by “local” interests and is failing rapidly. Wind, solar, coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear power systems and their related independent distribution networks have so many perspectives and inefficiencies (pork barrel, sanctioned private greed, time, age, perceptions and misperceptions, resource availability and allocations, legal wrangling, “rules”, etc.) that it will be virtually impossible to “fix” anything in any rational time frame.
This is as much a national security issue as it is a basic societal need issue at the individual level. Several times we have been faced with common requirements for our future and overcome the obstacles as the time. Railroads were one and Kennedy’s “moon programs” were another. There are others.
Why not do something similar for our electric grids and power systems, together with imposing a trust fund systemic maintenance and clean up “tax” on the system usage to pay those costs when they arise (similar to the nuclear programs).
We have the intellectual capacity as a nation to accomplish this, but is our political capacity up to the task? Greed and self interest by one political camp seems hell bent on instigating a new civil war over imposing their theocratic beliefs on the nation, and their fear that immigrants may be smarter and more capable than they are.
Once this Fusion becomes close to reality, I suspect that the Oil companies will fight to delay said development. You can't stop technology forever. So maybe the next generation will embrace and implement. Maybe in 40 years small fusion plants everywhere and shrunk to a very reasonable size. The Fusion Gun of continuous plasma stream can 1. create electricity without moving parts as electrons will fly off the plasma stream 2. radioactive materials can be made non-reactive 3. mining ores that are too depleted can continue to extract metals 4. carbon will be added in a process to make universal synthetic fuel that will run everything that runs on liquid fuel now and be superior 5. heat will boil sea water to make fresh water 6. sadly, this will be a fusion weapon also 7. small units can be used for rocket propulsion 8. The possibilities are endless and will transform societies and not without some turmoil. Were talking a plasma stream of several billion degrees.
If every city will have a Fusion Power plant then transmission becomes easier. Mini nukes? Can not limit your thinking.
Blade waste is another big problem because it is utterly impossible to recycle them. In "Wind Turbine Blade Waste in 2020" which appeared in Waste Management 62 (April 2017), Pu Liu and Claire Y. Barlow estimated that there will be 43 million tonnes of wind turbine blade waste worldwide by 2050. It will be necessary to dispose of 720,000 tonnes per year in the United States alone.
Bob Cappadonna, chief operating officer of the North American unit of Paris-based Veolia Environnement SA wrote "The wind turbine blade will be there forever. Most landfills are considered a dry tomb. The last thing we want to do is create more environmental challenges." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turbine-blades-can-t-be-recycled-so-they-re-piling-up-in-landfills.
"Green" and "sustainable" are poisoning the Earth and destroying the lives of vulnerable populations. Michael Shellenberger asked "Must we destroy the environment to save the planet?"
It all will not matter because we will have Fusion Power and unlimited pure energy virtually free. So wait about 30 years and all this green energy investments will go to waste. Therefore drill all the oil you can as we LOL still have 300+ years of oil. With his Fusion Power you can create electricity and also turn carbon into Synthetic Liquid Fuel. Bye bye all the oil drillers. Think of the real energy revolution. Climate Change is a scam for corruption. Climate is something we cannot change just adapt.
In December 2022, after more than a decade of effort and frustration, scientists at the US National Ignition Facility (NIF) announced that they had set a world record by producing a fusion reaction that released more energy than it consumed.
To compound the expense, the green left wants to build DC transmission, the most expensive and difficult to operate option on the list
My default assumption on all matters of electricity is that the dumbest electrician you can hire is smarter than a solid majority of politicians making energy & climate policy, and 90 percent of journalists covering same for major regime media firms. I have never encountered any evidence to challenge this.
Of course electricity turns up every time you need it, silly. You just turn on the switch. Big Valley Duh to ya.
The UAE built new nuclear on time and budget (and they were complete newbs to the industry) so it is possible. Standardize a large and small design and 'get-it-done.' No country needs an energy-transitioned-parallel-grid of parasitical solar and wind with ALL downside.