The Tesla is a three-second car that requires no driver skill at all, to roast a Corvette off the line. Just floor it. The computer won’t let the tires break free.
All the build quality issues, charge time and range issues, the negative effects of extreme heat and extreme cold, catching fire, auto piloting itself into a ravine, etc, are limitations to be tolerated.
Tesla is a product of the loosest monetary policy in the history of the world. Failing that, Tesla would be forced to compete in the context of a profit/loss system where loss-makers fall by the wayside instead of getting propped up through easy money and meme-stock theatrics. And a loss-maker it is. Over the last 10 years, properly calculated, Tesla has produced a cumulative $18 billion in negative free cash flow despite massive amounts of taxpayer subsidy.
"...Tesla is less interesting as a subject of investment research. Rather, it should be viewed as performance art..."
Over the past 253 calendar days (as of the latest data available before December 30, 2024):
Tesla (TSLA): According to posts on X, Tesla has seen a significant return. The most recent data from these posts shows Tesla up by about 73% since the start of 2024.
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 has had a return of approximately 26% over the same period.
Total Return Comparison:
Tesla (TSLA): +73%
S&P 500 (SPX): +26%
Therefore, over the past 253 calendar days, Tesla has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in terms of total return.
When Steven “Hans Gruber” Guilbeault first bloviated about eliminating IC engine cars in Canada, I suggested to some friends that we find a big barn somewhere and fill it with good used Honda Civics to sell at huge markups when they legislate only new EVs can be sold.
Curious, why was this last dated (April 2024) post highlighted today? Its core argument remains valid but enough is dated to require updating before posting. For example, Tesla stock rather down 41% YTD is currently near its all time high.
As av electrical engineer, I'll just say that electric drive, even motor per wheel, is superior, usefully & environmentally. And, indeed chemical charge storage is behind what's needed.
Batteries weigh at least 1800 times the electrical (electron) mass storage needed. An d the chemical demands: waste, recycling, etc. mean onboard storage is far behind. We are making progress, as with the ultra-capacitor, but for now, hybrid vehicles are best.
Remember, one of the 1st electric trucks was a Bavarian beer truck, with a DC motor i each wheel.
Christopher Clugston's book 'Blip: Humanity's 300 year self-terminating experiment with industrialism,' published in 2019, is an update of his book 'Scarcity: Humanity's Final Chapter (2012).
The Epilogue in 'Blip' relates Clugston's communications with Walter Youngquist over the last five of Walter's ninety-seven years.
Walter was relatively optimistic in his view that industrial civilization could make it to 2100, whereas Christopher puts his stake in the ground at 2050, with the caveat that the 2030's and 2040's will take us places that are unthinkable.
William R. Catton Jr., author of 'Overshoot' in 1982, wrote in the introduction to 'Scarcity,'
"Chris Clugston has pulled together such an array of facts about the path ravenous humanity has trod and the consequences we now confront that no person who fails to read this book should be eligible for election to high office."
The Epilog to 'Blip' ends with:
"Our other recurring topic was how fortunate we both felt to have lived during humanity's industrial era, and how we felt especially fortunate to to have experienced industrial humanity's heyday - the period between the end of WW2 and the oil shocks of the 1970's. Times were never better - literally - especially for those of us who lived in the West. After lamenting the fact that the human generation coming of age today will never experience the reality with which his (greatest) generation and my (baby boomer) generation grew up .... Walter would typically sum up our good fortune in having experienced the best of industrial humanity's 300 year 'blip' by signing off with "It's been a great ride!"
CA policy, not political party, is driving EV adoption. Triple whammy of generous income tax credits, insanely high gas prices and extra perks such as use of car pool lanes distort the market.
I’m surprised a company hasn’t swooped in to make small affordable EVs with low ranges for local use. A neighbor has a vehicle that was briefly made in the early 2000s that went out of business but he still uses it. I’d buy one if it was in business. The majority of Americans live in metro areas and the majority of drives are shortish commutes. Lots of people are buying e bikes for this reason. But if a Tesla that has wayyyyy too much tech goes for $40k it stands to reason that a very simple small battery vehicle could go for under $10k, use 1/5 of the battery minerals and actually save families money by allowing them to replace one of their gas cars with something cheaper. Personally I’d love a car with zero tech, just a golf cart with some windows that gets me across town. It’s odd no company is trying to fill this. It’s either a $2k e-bike or a $40k+ supercharged iPhone on wheels. I don’t need a 10 second quarter mile to go to the grocery store.
The Nissan Leaf. Chevy Bolt, and Volkswagen eGolf have all been in this category for years. Maybe not under $10k but far cheaper than the competition and small and short range just for around the town
Aren't alot of the short, around town trips done to pick up stuff (groceries, home project things, etc etc) and bring it back home, not just to transport a person or persons to a destination? What's the cargo capacity of a golf cart-sized EV?
Golf-cart-like small cars that cannot exceed 35mph do not require most of the NTSA stuff. But neighborhood only is a little too restricted unfortunately.
The Tesla is a three-second car that requires no driver skill at all, to roast a Corvette off the line. Just floor it. The computer won’t let the tires break free.
All the build quality issues, charge time and range issues, the negative effects of extreme heat and extreme cold, catching fire, auto piloting itself into a ravine, etc, are limitations to be tolerated.
https://open.substack.com/pub/dunneinsights/p/why-everyone-except-tesla-should?r=koesh&utm_medium=ios
Tesla is a product of the loosest monetary policy in the history of the world. Failing that, Tesla would be forced to compete in the context of a profit/loss system where loss-makers fall by the wayside instead of getting propped up through easy money and meme-stock theatrics. And a loss-maker it is. Over the last 10 years, properly calculated, Tesla has produced a cumulative $18 billion in negative free cash flow despite massive amounts of taxpayer subsidy.
"...Tesla is less interesting as a subject of investment research. Rather, it should be viewed as performance art..."
https://mtsobserver.substack.com/p/tesla-avatar-for-the-everything-bubble?utm_source=publication-search
EVs are one thing. Tesla is another. People who would buy an EV don’t want to be seen in a Tesla, especially a Tesla truck.
So Tesla stock took off like a rocket. What did you get wrong? Or maybe you will be correct but your timing was off. Like to see a follow-up.
Substack is forever!
Over the past 253 calendar days (as of the latest data available before December 30, 2024):
Tesla (TSLA): According to posts on X, Tesla has seen a significant return. The most recent data from these posts shows Tesla up by about 73% since the start of 2024.
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 has had a return of approximately 26% over the same period.
Total Return Comparison:
Tesla (TSLA): +73%
S&P 500 (SPX): +26%
Therefore, over the past 253 calendar days, Tesla has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in terms of total return.
Fair enough. TSLA's stock has been volatile. When I wrote this piece, its stock was down. Now it's up.
I’m sorry but doesn’t that car look like a giant can of sardines?
“Tesla’s stock is down 41% so far this year.” ????? I must be using the wrong stock symbol
When Steven “Hans Gruber” Guilbeault first bloviated about eliminating IC engine cars in Canada, I suggested to some friends that we find a big barn somewhere and fill it with good used Honda Civics to sell at huge markups when they legislate only new EVs can be sold.
Curious, why was this last dated (April 2024) post highlighted today? Its core argument remains valid but enough is dated to require updating before posting. For example, Tesla stock rather down 41% YTD is currently near its all time high.
"Tesla’s stock is down 41% so far this year."
Seriously?
As av electrical engineer, I'll just say that electric drive, even motor per wheel, is superior, usefully & environmentally. And, indeed chemical charge storage is behind what's needed.
Batteries weigh at least 1800 times the electrical (electron) mass storage needed. An d the chemical demands: waste, recycling, etc. mean onboard storage is far behind. We are making progress, as with the ultra-capacitor, but for now, hybrid vehicles are best.
Remember, one of the 1st electric trucks was a Bavarian beer truck, with a DC motor i each wheel.
This is not about EVs, it’s about control of the populace by the WEF. Orwell’s World is here and now.
Thanks Robert, great read.
Christopher Clugston's book 'Blip: Humanity's 300 year self-terminating experiment with industrialism,' published in 2019, is an update of his book 'Scarcity: Humanity's Final Chapter (2012).
The Epilogue in 'Blip' relates Clugston's communications with Walter Youngquist over the last five of Walter's ninety-seven years.
Walter was relatively optimistic in his view that industrial civilization could make it to 2100, whereas Christopher puts his stake in the ground at 2050, with the caveat that the 2030's and 2040's will take us places that are unthinkable.
William R. Catton Jr., author of 'Overshoot' in 1982, wrote in the introduction to 'Scarcity,'
"Chris Clugston has pulled together such an array of facts about the path ravenous humanity has trod and the consequences we now confront that no person who fails to read this book should be eligible for election to high office."
The Epilog to 'Blip' ends with:
"Our other recurring topic was how fortunate we both felt to have lived during humanity's industrial era, and how we felt especially fortunate to to have experienced industrial humanity's heyday - the period between the end of WW2 and the oil shocks of the 1970's. Times were never better - literally - especially for those of us who lived in the West. After lamenting the fact that the human generation coming of age today will never experience the reality with which his (greatest) generation and my (baby boomer) generation grew up .... Walter would typically sum up our good fortune in having experienced the best of industrial humanity's 300 year 'blip' by signing off with "It's been a great ride!"
CA policy, not political party, is driving EV adoption. Triple whammy of generous income tax credits, insanely high gas prices and extra perks such as use of car pool lanes distort the market.
I’m surprised a company hasn’t swooped in to make small affordable EVs with low ranges for local use. A neighbor has a vehicle that was briefly made in the early 2000s that went out of business but he still uses it. I’d buy one if it was in business. The majority of Americans live in metro areas and the majority of drives are shortish commutes. Lots of people are buying e bikes for this reason. But if a Tesla that has wayyyyy too much tech goes for $40k it stands to reason that a very simple small battery vehicle could go for under $10k, use 1/5 of the battery minerals and actually save families money by allowing them to replace one of their gas cars with something cheaper. Personally I’d love a car with zero tech, just a golf cart with some windows that gets me across town. It’s odd no company is trying to fill this. It’s either a $2k e-bike or a $40k+ supercharged iPhone on wheels. I don’t need a 10 second quarter mile to go to the grocery store.
The Nissan Leaf. Chevy Bolt, and Volkswagen eGolf have all been in this category for years. Maybe not under $10k but far cheaper than the competition and small and short range just for around the town
Aren't alot of the short, around town trips done to pick up stuff (groceries, home project things, etc etc) and bring it back home, not just to transport a person or persons to a destination? What's the cargo capacity of a golf cart-sized EV?
In India or Florida?
A $10k vehicle would never pass the NTSA safety requirements and once all this is added on the price will be >$20k.
Golf-cart-like small cars that cannot exceed 35mph do not require most of the NTSA stuff. But neighborhood only is a little too restricted unfortunately.
We are not talking about golf-cart-like vehicles but vehicles people will use daily and can operate on highways.