Again, an excellent article on the fallacy of wind production, especially off-shore. Regardless, and I guess these folks in Nova Scotia haven’t read your analysis, there is a proposal to develop a large wind farm off the coast. And, a green energy “expert” was on TV saying that it is low cost per KW, much cheaper than the fossil fuel derived power currently being provided in Nova Scotia. So not only should it be done to get off fossil fuel, it’s going to be cheaper. He had the outlandish statement that these wind projects are amortized over 40+ years. Apparently he has seen the reports regarding the massive maintenance and/or short life span of ocean situated wind turbines.
Someday, maybe, the politicians will actually look at the facts, but that’s too much to hope for.
On the other hand, Tesla has been slashing prices on its EVs - and they have the margins to do that and stay in the black.
The base Tesla Model three is now under $32,000 after applying the $7,500 federal tax credit.
That's a little more than an absolutely stripped base Camry, but add the options to the Camry that are included standard on the Tesla and it costs the same or more.
In the more popular CUV category, the Tesla Model Y is similarly priced to a Toyota RAV 4
The Teslas will be much cheaper to "fuel" and have no scheduled maintenance at all. Tesla's are no longer rich person's toys. They are direct cross shop to the kind of vehicle many middle class consumers that can afford a new car would be looking at. Whether or not they are the best choice for an individual is still dependent on circumstances and location. EVs are great for folks that can charge at home. Much less easy to live with if that's not possible. And although Tesla has built thousands of reliable, easy to use Superchargers coast to coast in the US and Canada, coverage away from main highways is still sparse. There's nowhere in the lower 48 states you can't get to - but once you are in some of the emptier regions, getting a charge to go back home might involve an overnight charge from a regular outlet somewhere. That's only going to be true for a few more years. Tesla is still adding more chargers - new stations open every few days. And the big legacy auto makers just created a consortium to build out another similar network. That will not happen overnight, so in the meantime they have (almost) all cut deals with Tesla to allow their cars to use the existing extensive Tesla charging network.
If all 'green subsidies' were eliminated, the entire green movement would collapse upon itself. That would be healthy not only for our economies but also our environment.
It’s not lost on me that it’s largely north eastern states that are cancelling all this expensive offshore wind. Here in Texas, we’ve unfortunately gone along with the siren call of “all of the above” and we’re on the hook to subsidize billions of unnecessary transmission infrastructure. I plan to attend a community event for my local electricity provider and note my displeasure with the higher prices renewables have brought us.
Well... Without the Financial Terrorists TOOLS ZIRP or NIRP everything becomes "uneconomic". In fact the entire current Western Plantations (aka "countries") are all uneconomic.
Don't forget additional system costs as well. Gas backup my be another $20/MWh or more and there's transmission. I've seen estimates of the full price in the $200+/MWh range for England. But offshore has been big in Europe because onshore is so hard to get approvals for. Recently Denmark, the wind star, has backed off new offshore developments and started looking at nuclear
When countries with a very strong preference for wind power start to look at nuclear despite no recent projects in the EU or US coming in near the potential lower costs of a mature nuclear sector it's really noticeable
Looks like investment tax credits represent about $29, according to the diagram in the linked BNEF article. Assuming these are the only subsidies (big if), the actual unsubsidized LCOE is around $143 per MWh. How can wind power proponents claim this is a “cheap” source of electricity?
If you’re really worried about whales and not using them just to oppose wind energy, then you’d focus your attention on commercial fishing and shipping in general.
Commercial shipping bycatch is the major killer of whales and dolphins by many orders of magnitude, so more off limits areas for fishing actually benefit sea life.
And shipping, of which a large % are moving around fossil fuels, is the second largest killer.
I happened to see Michael Schellenbergers documentary today "Thrown into the Wind" and it really made the point about interference from sonar to whales, dolphins, and porpoises and the negative impact it has on these animals that swim in our oceans and if lucky, you get an opportunity to see them suddenly swimming beside you or you watch a humpback whale breach to the surface and you can only stare in wonder. It's an unbelievable experience and this obsession with wind turbines, standing 900' tall with 185' wing spans, 30,000 lbs of cement on the ocean floor along with the noise and the change in wind currents its pure insanity.
It should be noted that the only offshore wind farm in the U.S. has 5 turbines located in Block Island, RI. In 2021 the cables came out of the seabed. A 4 mile area around the wind turbines was off limits to anyone and it disrupted the commercial fisherman for months. Oh yeah, and of course, no electricity was generated.
It's insanity to continue with this so called transition to wind and solar. Warren Buffet said "the only reason for these farms is the subsidies" and there lies the catalyst. When one of the conservationists in Schellenbegr's documentary noted that American Marine Conservation Society was the organization that investigated the whale death at Lido Beach it peaked my interest since I grew up in Long Beach, one beach away. She pointed out that most of the Board of AMCS had ties to Equinor, the wind company that was scouring the seabed and running sonar for mapping. So, we find that not only the organizations that are supposedly experts in deaths of the endangered Right Whales, they are also bought and paid for by the wind industry. The environmental groups are also in the pocket of the wind industry, especially Orsted Wind and some that are pretty recognizable include Greenpeace, the Audubon Society, the Sierra Club and one which wasn't such a surprise, World Wildlife Federation that is a partner of Orsted. The list is long and this money pot covers the media of course, so we'll see if the protests of millions of people along the Atlantic Coast can make a difference.
I hope so, since this all of this net zero bull is and will cause environmental disasters that we can't even dream of knowing until it too late. But, there was one bright spot on Biden's IRA that forces him to grant offshore leases to oil and gas when he presents leases for offshore wind. So, the Major Oil Companies total bids were $264 million and the wind leases sold for $1.5 million and only one lease was acquired. So, perhaps it's not too late as the wind industry sheds its millions in subsidies and tax credits and then has the gall to beg for additional money from the taxpayers. So that is a look into the future and most of these companies will go back to their countries and I doubt they'll come running back when these monstrosities need to be decommissioned.
Perhaps the next Administration will trash these unreliable and environmental boondoggles that will transition us into nothing good. So, we shall see since time is of the essence.
It’s good to have nonzero interest rates back again eh? The whole world seems to have forgotten that borrowing money costs money, and things that don’t make sense unless money is free don’t make sense...
It is delicious to see these offshore projects die even when eligible for those sweet sweet IRA subsidies!
Thanks for the hard numbers and elucidating commentary. I am using your substack to educate our state legislators and utility commissioners on the real costs of wind/solar here in Wyoming, for which power companies are now going after rate payers for prior losses investing in alternative green energy trying to save on 24/7 backup NG and coal.
My position on wind and solar has always been, and remains, if they can compete head to head in an open fair market, so be it. But subsidies and forced adoption will only cause trouble.
In a way yes, wind and solar could never be sold as firm power in a traditional power market. The supplier would need to buy firming reserves to "firm" the energy or sell it in the lower priced non-firm market. With non-firm the buyer provides reserves
It's my understanding that some states are requiring wind/solar project developers to provide proof of backup power sources for firming reserves. If you know of any such successful policies or statutes, please advise. Thanks.
I believe this news ties in too. Sounds like Maryland was counting on that wind for net zero
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-pjm-exelon-transmission-plan-talen-brandon-shores-psc/699410/
Again, an excellent article on the fallacy of wind production, especially off-shore. Regardless, and I guess these folks in Nova Scotia haven’t read your analysis, there is a proposal to develop a large wind farm off the coast. And, a green energy “expert” was on TV saying that it is low cost per KW, much cheaper than the fossil fuel derived power currently being provided in Nova Scotia. So not only should it be done to get off fossil fuel, it’s going to be cheaper. He had the outlandish statement that these wind projects are amortized over 40+ years. Apparently he has seen the reports regarding the massive maintenance and/or short life span of ocean situated wind turbines.
Someday, maybe, the politicians will actually look at the facts, but that’s too much to hope for.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/offshore-wind-farm-unveiled-halifax-1.6945106
On the other hand, Tesla has been slashing prices on its EVs - and they have the margins to do that and stay in the black.
The base Tesla Model three is now under $32,000 after applying the $7,500 federal tax credit.
That's a little more than an absolutely stripped base Camry, but add the options to the Camry that are included standard on the Tesla and it costs the same or more.
In the more popular CUV category, the Tesla Model Y is similarly priced to a Toyota RAV 4
The Teslas will be much cheaper to "fuel" and have no scheduled maintenance at all. Tesla's are no longer rich person's toys. They are direct cross shop to the kind of vehicle many middle class consumers that can afford a new car would be looking at. Whether or not they are the best choice for an individual is still dependent on circumstances and location. EVs are great for folks that can charge at home. Much less easy to live with if that's not possible. And although Tesla has built thousands of reliable, easy to use Superchargers coast to coast in the US and Canada, coverage away from main highways is still sparse. There's nowhere in the lower 48 states you can't get to - but once you are in some of the emptier regions, getting a charge to go back home might involve an overnight charge from a regular outlet somewhere. That's only going to be true for a few more years. Tesla is still adding more chargers - new stations open every few days. And the big legacy auto makers just created a consortium to build out another similar network. That will not happen overnight, so in the meantime they have (almost) all cut deals with Tesla to allow their cars to use the existing extensive Tesla charging network.
If all 'green subsidies' were eliminated, the entire green movement would collapse upon itself. That would be healthy not only for our economies but also our environment.
It’s not lost on me that it’s largely north eastern states that are cancelling all this expensive offshore wind. Here in Texas, we’ve unfortunately gone along with the siren call of “all of the above” and we’re on the hook to subsidize billions of unnecessary transmission infrastructure. I plan to attend a community event for my local electricity provider and note my displeasure with the higher prices renewables have brought us.
Well... Without the Financial Terrorists TOOLS ZIRP or NIRP everything becomes "uneconomic". In fact the entire current Western Plantations (aka "countries") are all uneconomic.
https://postimg.cc/w3XwmG0v
Lets just keep pretending GREEN STUFF will save us! Don't forget to gladly pay those GREEN TAXES.
Grinning from cheeck to cheeck reading this. Thank you Robert for clearly documenting all of this do clearly.
> The levelized cost of electricity of a subsidized US offshore wind project has increased to $114.20 per megawatt-hour in 2023
What is the “true” cost, including subsidies?
Don't forget additional system costs as well. Gas backup my be another $20/MWh or more and there's transmission. I've seen estimates of the full price in the $200+/MWh range for England. But offshore has been big in Europe because onshore is so hard to get approvals for. Recently Denmark, the wind star, has backed off new offshore developments and started looking at nuclear
When countries with a very strong preference for wind power start to look at nuclear despite no recent projects in the EU or US coming in near the potential lower costs of a mature nuclear sector it's really noticeable
Looks like investment tax credits represent about $29, according to the diagram in the linked BNEF article. Assuming these are the only subsidies (big if), the actual unsubsidized LCOE is around $143 per MWh. How can wind power proponents claim this is a “cheap” source of electricity?
If you’re really worried about whales and not using them just to oppose wind energy, then you’d focus your attention on commercial fishing and shipping in general.
Commercial shipping bycatch is the major killer of whales and dolphins by many orders of magnitude, so more off limits areas for fishing actually benefit sea life.
And shipping, of which a large % are moving around fossil fuels, is the second largest killer.
And of course commercial whaling itself.
Commercial fishing* bycatch
I happened to see Michael Schellenbergers documentary today "Thrown into the Wind" and it really made the point about interference from sonar to whales, dolphins, and porpoises and the negative impact it has on these animals that swim in our oceans and if lucky, you get an opportunity to see them suddenly swimming beside you or you watch a humpback whale breach to the surface and you can only stare in wonder. It's an unbelievable experience and this obsession with wind turbines, standing 900' tall with 185' wing spans, 30,000 lbs of cement on the ocean floor along with the noise and the change in wind currents its pure insanity.
It should be noted that the only offshore wind farm in the U.S. has 5 turbines located in Block Island, RI. In 2021 the cables came out of the seabed. A 4 mile area around the wind turbines was off limits to anyone and it disrupted the commercial fisherman for months. Oh yeah, and of course, no electricity was generated.
It's insanity to continue with this so called transition to wind and solar. Warren Buffet said "the only reason for these farms is the subsidies" and there lies the catalyst. When one of the conservationists in Schellenbegr's documentary noted that American Marine Conservation Society was the organization that investigated the whale death at Lido Beach it peaked my interest since I grew up in Long Beach, one beach away. She pointed out that most of the Board of AMCS had ties to Equinor, the wind company that was scouring the seabed and running sonar for mapping. So, we find that not only the organizations that are supposedly experts in deaths of the endangered Right Whales, they are also bought and paid for by the wind industry. The environmental groups are also in the pocket of the wind industry, especially Orsted Wind and some that are pretty recognizable include Greenpeace, the Audubon Society, the Sierra Club and one which wasn't such a surprise, World Wildlife Federation that is a partner of Orsted. The list is long and this money pot covers the media of course, so we'll see if the protests of millions of people along the Atlantic Coast can make a difference.
I hope so, since this all of this net zero bull is and will cause environmental disasters that we can't even dream of knowing until it too late. But, there was one bright spot on Biden's IRA that forces him to grant offshore leases to oil and gas when he presents leases for offshore wind. So, the Major Oil Companies total bids were $264 million and the wind leases sold for $1.5 million and only one lease was acquired. So, perhaps it's not too late as the wind industry sheds its millions in subsidies and tax credits and then has the gall to beg for additional money from the taxpayers. So that is a look into the future and most of these companies will go back to their countries and I doubt they'll come running back when these monstrosities need to be decommissioned.
Perhaps the next Administration will trash these unreliable and environmental boondoggles that will transition us into nothing good. So, we shall see since time is of the essence.
Unfortunately these companies will be plying their wares downunder. Your gain is our loss.
It’s good to have nonzero interest rates back again eh? The whole world seems to have forgotten that borrowing money costs money, and things that don’t make sense unless money is free don’t make sense...
It is delicious to see these offshore projects die even when eligible for those sweet sweet IRA subsidies!
Nice piece, as always Robert. I’ll watch the whale movie. I can only hope the sound track is Bob Seger’s “Against the Wind”
Thanks for the hard numbers and elucidating commentary. I am using your substack to educate our state legislators and utility commissioners on the real costs of wind/solar here in Wyoming, for which power companies are now going after rate payers for prior losses investing in alternative green energy trying to save on 24/7 backup NG and coal.
My position on wind and solar has always been, and remains, if they can compete head to head in an open fair market, so be it. But subsidies and forced adoption will only cause trouble.
Power availability less than 100% of the time will never compete with power that's available 24/7/365, which I think is your point.
In a way yes, wind and solar could never be sold as firm power in a traditional power market. The supplier would need to buy firming reserves to "firm" the energy or sell it in the lower priced non-firm market. With non-firm the buyer provides reserves
It's my understanding that some states are requiring wind/solar project developers to provide proof of backup power sources for firming reserves. If you know of any such successful policies or statutes, please advise. Thanks.
Sorry I don't know that one. I know Bonneville Power Administration was taking the Columbia Gorge Wind Farms to court, but I don't know the details.
I don't know if it has to be the day ahead market, but forcing them to provide their own reserves is the secret sauce.
Investment tax credits and subsidies don't eliminate costs. They just hide them in your tax bill.